SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion on Radicalization (Part I)

Speakers: Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University); Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology); Dr. Sabrina (Pagano) Polansky (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron); Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.); Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC)

Date: 10 March 2020

Speaker Session Preview

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Ms. Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology), Dr. Sabrina (Pagano) Polansky (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron), Mr. Ali Jafri (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.) and Mr. Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC).

[B1] Dr. Cooley first presented his and his team’s work on co-creating civic narratives among citizens and using gaming exercises as intentional tools of narrative reflection to achieve deradicalization. The team identified five key learning components in deradicalization programs (group dynamic-based learning, personality competencies, addressing the roots of radicalization, the role of civil society, and custom tailored programs) and five key elements of narrative reflection (points of similarities and differences, awakening participants’ attention, open and reflective communication, introspection and constructive debate, and tailoring the gaming experience). Next, Ms. Peterson presented her and her colleagues’ work on the deradicalization of youths. Ms. Peterson stated that children of war, refugees in camps, IDPs, and children that have grown up in areas with little structure or governance have all experienced mental, emotional, and physical trauma, which makes them particularly vulnerable to radicalization. However, it is not always clear which children will become radicalized. Furthermore, no model for youth deradicalization is universal; every child’s experience is different, and thus, deradicalization programs should be tailored specifically to the children at hand. Dr. Wright then focused on risk taking in children and adolescents in London. He provided five recommendations for CENTCOM and outside actors based on his research: 1) CENTCOM should focus policies on each of three distinct periods: toddlers ages 0-4, younger children ages 5-12, and adolescents ages 13-17; 2) CENTCOM should afford the new generations opportunities for plausible non-radical, non-violent futures by helping build environments with basic education and social support; 3) A hierarchy of interventions should be used, starting with building the foundations (i.e., providing places to go and routines to follow); 4) Cost effective and scalable interventions should be used; and 5) The information environment must be enhanced.

[B4] Dr. Polansky spoke about reintegrating the radicalized, while highlighting the challenges, lessons learned, and ways to overcome barriers. She stated that there is no one-size fits all reintegration program; however, there are many common elements among programs that can be selected and tailored as needed. Some of these elements include community support, economic assistance/vocational training, and after-care/monitoring. Dr. Polansky also identified several conditions for successful reintegration, including the formation of an effective peace agreement, sustained political will, a proper understanding of the information environment, and external support. Barriers to reintegration include the 10-20% of individuals who cannot be rehabilitated and societies’/governments’ unwillingness to accept certain individuals for reintegration.

[B5] Dr. Kaltenthaler focused on preventing radicalization among IDPs in Syria and Iraq. He presented the 3N (Needs, Networks, and Narratives) model of radicalization, highlighting that an individual’s most important need is the psychological need for significance. Dr. Kaltenthaler’s research focused on the Al Hawl camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Syria. Al Hawl demonstrated an abundance of the three Ns. He recommended that the focus in such a camp should be on the IDPs’ resiliency to radicalization measures, rather than individually focused counter-radicalization efforts. He also stated that Al Hawl and other IDP camps should try to improve the sense of significance among camp residents and that jobs and education will help achieve this goal. Next, Mr. Jafri explained that countering radicalization, deradicalizing extremists, and disengaging individuals from violence involves a system of measures that span from individual to community-wide interventions. Some of such interventions include youth programs (e.g., sports, education, counseling), education and vocational training for adults, timely repatriation, and the provision of general health services and psychological counseling for trauma. Mr. Jafri also highlighted that triaging and segregating people in IDP/refugee camps presents challenges, as proper training is required, and no tools for achieving this goal have been validated. To conclude, Mr. Lee presented the Athena team’s model design, which examines how at-risk populations can be protected from and become resilient to extremism in an IDP/refugee camp. The team used three cases (status quo, diversion through work, and holistic disengagement), two key actors (Syrian Democratic Forces [SDF] and the Islamic State), and three civilian groups in Al-Hawl camp (passive Salafists, Sunni neutrals, and violent Salafists). The Athena team found that to mitigate radicalization, increases in social services and economic support must be paired with the presence of a robust, competent, and ideologically compatible security force. Furthermore, establishing a conditional process for managing the distribution of social services and economic support can help effectively disengage at-risk populations from potential radicalization.

Speaker Session Audio Recording

Note: Dr. Polansky’s portion of the audio was not included in the website listing, as per her request. Please email Ms. Nicole Omundson (nomundson@nsiteam.com) to access the full audio recording.

Briefing Materials

Biographies:

Dr. Skye Cooley is an assistant professor in the School of Media and Strategic Communications at Oklahoma State University. He is a co-founder of the MESA group, specializing in conducting open-source content analysis of foreign media and narrative analysis. His work has been published in Global Media and Communication, the International Journal of Press/Politics, the International Journal of Communication, the Russian Journal of Communication, and the Asian Journal of Communication, among others.

Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler is a Professor of Political Science and Director of Security Studies at the University of Akron. His research and teaching focus on political violence, political psychology, public opinion and political behavior, countering violent extremism (CVE), and counterterrorism. He has worked on multiple research studies involving Afghanistan, Bangladesh, several European countries, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Syria, Tajikistan, and the United States. Dr. Kaltenthaler’s current research centers on the radicalization and recruitment process into Islamist violent extremism in different
types of social and political environments as well as ways to counter this process (Countering Violent Extremism). His body of research and analytic work has resulted in academic publications and presentations as well as analytic reports and briefings for the U.S. government. His research has been published in three books, multiple book chapters, as well as articles in International Studies Quarterly, Political Science Quarterly, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, as well as several other journals.

Dr. Lawrence A. Kuznar (Chief Cultural Sciences Officer, NSI, Inc., Professor of Anthropology, Purdue University-Fort Wayne) Dr. Kuznar conducts anthropological research relevant to counterterrorism and other areas of national security. His research ranges from advanced statistical and geographical modeling of social instability, to discourse analysis of adversaries, including North Korea, China, Russia, Iran, and ISIS (Daesh), to provide leading indicators of intent and behavior. He has developed computational models of genocide in Darfur and tribal factionalism in New Guinea, mathematical models of inequality and conflict, and integrated socio-cultural databases for geospatial analysis of illicit nuclear trade and bioterrorism. Dr. Kuznar’s recent research has been funded by academic sources, the Office of the Secretary of Defense Strategic Multi-Layer Analysis, Air Force Research Lab (AFRL), the Human Social Cultural Behavior (HSCB) modeling program of the Department of Defense, and by the US Army Corps of Engineers. He has also served on the HSCB Technical Progress Evaluation panel and a National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) net assessment panel. He conducted extensive research among the Aymara of southern Peru and with the Navajo in the American southwest. Dr. Kuznar has published and edited several books and numerous peer-reviewed articles in journals such as American Anthropologist, Current Anthropology, Social Science Computer Review, Political Studies, Field Methods, and Journal of Anthropological Research. Dr. Kuznar earned his Ph.D. and M.A. in Anthropology, and a M.S. in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences from Northwestern University. His B.A. in Anthropology is from Penn State.

Mr. Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC) is a retired US Army Field Artillery Lieutenant Colonel with a combined 40 years of experience as an Army officer, operations research analyst, and models and simulations specialist. He holds a B.S. in Business Administration from Oregon State University and has an M.S. in Systems Management from the University of Southern California. He currently serves as a Senior Research Analyst and Studies & Analysis Team Chief for the TRADOC G-2 Modeling and Simulations Directorate with responsibility for overseeing the Athena Simulation Program. Over the last 30+ years, he has performed duties in models and simulations and/or operations research positions at the Directorate
of Simulations for the US Army Europe, Grafenwoehr, GE; the Depth and Simulations Attack Battle Laboratory, Fort Sill, OK; the National Simulations Center, the TRADOC Analysis Center, the Mission Command Battle Laboratory, and the Modeling and Simulations Directorate, all located at Fort Leavenworth, KS.

Dr. Sabrina (Pagano) Polansky (NSI, Inc.) has extensive experience leading teams and projects both in academia and industry, including both government and commercial domains. Though supporting a wide
variety of projects and proposals at NSI, her work has focused in four main areas: 1) providing support to DoD’s Strategic Multilayer Analysis (SMA) projects, including rapid applied analysis for CENTCOM, 2) serving as the Principal Investigator and Project Manager for a multi-year contract investigating progress in conflict environments, 3) providing project oversight as the project manager for two AAA titles at a top gaming company, and 4) contributing thought leadership as one of two developers for a corporate
offering focused on enhancing dignity in interactions with customers and employees. Prior to NSI, Dr. Polansky served as the Director (Acting) of a growing behavioral sciences program, as well as a Faculty Fellow Researcher and Lecturer at UCLA. Her work has spanned a wide variety of topics, with particular depth in intergroup relations, injustice, basic and moral emotions (e.g., empathy, moral outrage), and prosocial/antisocial behavior. She maintains an active knowledge base in the broad field of social psychology, and knowledge that spans multiple fields, given her experience and leadership on multidisciplinary projects. Dr. Polansky earned her Ph.D. in Social Psychology (minor in Statistics) from the University of California, Los Angeles, and a dual BA with highest honors in Psychology and Political Science from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Ms. Nicole Peterson (NSI, Inc.) is an Analyst who assists in qualitative research and strategic analysis in
support of Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) efforts primarily focused on national security issues and Department of Defense (DoD) concerns. She has contributed to NSI’s Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa®) and discourse analyses during her time at NSI. Nicole coordinates SMA’s speaker series, which encompasses a broad range of topics from radicalization of populations and violent extremist organizations to artificial intelligence. She is also the publisher of SMA’s weekly newsletter, which summarizes SMA speaker
sessions, outlines upcoming events, and disseminates relevant publications. Nicole began her career at NSI as an undergraduate intern for its commercial sector and was subsequently promoted to associate analyst for its government sector in 2016. She graduated with honors from the University of San Diego where she received a BA in applied mathematics and a minor in accountancy.

Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology) is an affiliated scholar at Georgetown University, honorary research associate at University College London (UCL), Consultant at Intelligent Biology and Fellow at New America. His work combines neuroscientific, behavioural and technological insights to understand decision-making in politics and international confrontations, in ways practically applicable to policy. He leads international, interdisciplinary projects with collaborators in countries including China, the U.S., Iran and the UK. He was an Associate in the Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington DC and a Senior Research Fellow in International Relations at the University of
Birmingham, UK. He has conducted work for the UK Government and U.S. Department of Defense. Before this he examined decision-making using functional brain imaging at UCL and in the Department of Government at the London School of Economics. He was a clinical neurologist in Oxford and at the National Hospital for Neurology. He has published academically (some twenty publications, e.g. Proceedings of the Royal Society), in general publications such as the Atlantic and Foreign Affairs, with the Pentagon Joint Staff (see www.intelligentbiology.co.uk) and has appeared on the BBC and CNN. Wright received a medical degree from UCL, a BSc in Health Policy from Imperial College London, has Membership of the Royal College of Physicians (UK), has an MSc in Neuroscience and a PhD in Neuroscience both from UCL.

This speaker session supported SMA’s CENTCOM project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the CENTCOM project page.