SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion on Radicalization (Part II)

Speakers: Dr. David Dorondo (Western Carolina University); George Popp (NSI, Inc.); Thomas Rieger (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia)

Date: 17 March 2020

Speaker Session Preview

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. David Dorondo (Western Carolina University), Mr. George Popp (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia), and Mr. Thomas Rieger (NSI, Inc.). The moderator was Ms. Sarah Canna (NSI, Inc.).

[B2] Mr. Popp first provided an overview of an analysis his team did to assess what kind of lessons can be learned from deradicalization programs of the past. The NSI team conducted a targeted literature review of both historical disengagement and deradicalization programs and assessments and evaluations of such programs, as well as a case study analysis and an SME elicitation. Mr. Popp highlighted several of the team’s findings. First, the team observed that there is an important distinction to be made between disengagement (changing behavior) and deradicalization (changing attitudes). Second, the team found that measuring “successful” deradicalization is challenging. Finally, the team identified four characteristics that appear to be fairly common among “successful” disengagement and deradicalization programs: 1) working to create a sense of hope and purpose, 2) building a sense of community, 3) providing individual attention and regimented daily schedules, and 4) ensuring sustainable, long-term commitments. Mr. Popp concluded by noting, however, that there is no “one size fits all” approach to disengagement and deradicalization; thus, programs should be tailored to specific environments and individuals. Dr. Suedfeld then presented the University of British Columbia (UBC) team’s findings derived from its literature review of psychological theory and research on both deradicalization and integrative complexity. The UBC team used Kelman’s three processes of social influence (compliance, identification, internalization) as the basis of its analysis, focusing on four case studies: 1) Northern Ireland, which represented the use of incapacitation as a method for re-education, 2) Saudi Arabia, which represented the reintegration of disengaged individuals into society, 3) Tunisia, which represented political change through identification, and 4) Cambridge, which represented internalization via cognitive change. Dr. Suedfeld highlighted four lessons learned from his team’s research: 1) it is important to define disengagement and deradicalization, 2) an unbiased definition and empirical measurement of success is critical, 3) there is a need to incorporate relevant cultural and social factors in analysis and planning, and 4) CENTCOM must pay attention to the cognitive processes of radicalized individuals and of participants of deradicalization programs. He also stated that there is a large body of evidence that supports the association between changes in integrative complexity and the peaceful or violent resolution of political conflict. Moreover, the UBC team found that militants and terrorist groups displayed, on average, lower integrative complexity if they accepted, supported, and engaged in violence. Next, Dr. Dorondo discussed denazification in Germany and applied his insights to the potential deradicalization of individuals in the CENTCOM AOR. Dr. Dorondo stated that denazification was a generational process and took 25-30 years to fully take place. Moreover, inter-allied differences prevented a common process towards denazification, and East-West German ideological conflict affected the success of denazification efforts. Despite these hurdles, Western democracies’ “soft power” influence and European integration contributed to success achieved over the long term, as did domestic German buy-in and the presence of Non-Nazi leadership, governance, and structures. To conclude, Dr. Dorondo noted that neo-Nazi ideology still exists in Germany despite decades of denazification efforts. He questioned whether this same trend might become evident in the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR) with respect to radical Islamist thought. Dr. Dorondo also questioned the role that social media may play in the perpetuation of radical ideas in the CENTCOM AOR, as it has with neo-Nazism.

[B3] Dr. Dorondo then addressed where the ownership of the radicalization problem in the CENTCOM AOR resides, what the roles of militaries should be, and what might be the most effective voice to promote deradicalization. Dr. Dorondo focused on the post-Brexit EU2+1 and German-speaking East Central Europe’s (ECE) participation in a US “coalition of the willing.” He stated that historically conditioned attitudes in the EU2+1 and GS-ECE complicate effective and rapid responses to popular radicalization and mass migration (PRMM). These states will continue to stress the importance of an international rules-based, UN-led effort to mitigate PRMM insofar as it threatens Europe directly. Thus, EU2 + 1 and GS-ECE participation in a US-led coalition to mitigate PRMM is unlikely. Dr. Dorondo suggested that CENTCOM (and the US writ large) will have to “shoulder the lion’s share” of the international effort towards PRMM. Failure to do so could result in further strategic openings for Russia and China in the region. Mr. Rieger proceeded to discuss who has responsibility for the deradicalization problem in the CENTCOM AOR. He highlighted the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), which has been a major player in deradicalization and reintegration efforts within the CENTCOM AOR. However, its ability to assist in providing infrastructure, services, settlement, integration, and repatriation remain limited to an extent. CENTCOM can also play a role in the region, Mr. Rieger stated, as it can help protect/remove individuals from conflict zones, assist with relocation, and assist with the development of camp infrastructure and security, with authorization and funding. He also suggested that the host country should play a role in limiting radicalization by providing shelter and basic services for displaced civilians, prohibiting VEO incursion, preventing political and militant recruitment within camps, and setting fair, equitable administrative and legal policies regarding freedom of movement and the ability to work. To conclude, Mr. Rieger stated that the most effective voices in combatting radicalization must be seen as credible, knowledgeable, and relatable and should be from the same ethnic and religious background as the individuals to whom they are speaking.

Speaker Session Audio Recording

To access an audio recording of the session, please email Ms. Nicole Omundson (nomundson@nsiteam.com).

Briefing Materials

Biographies:

David R. Dorondo earned the degree of B.A. cum laude in history from Armstrong State College in 1980 and the M.A. in German and European diplomatic history from the University of South Carolina in 1984. From 1984 to 1987, he was a member of St. Antony’s College, Oxford, and was admitted to the degree of D.Phil. from the University of Oxford in 1988. He earned a Fulbright Fellowship to attend the Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg in the Federal Republic of Germany for the academic year 1985-1986, having already spent the year 1981-1982 at the same institution as a graduate exchange student. Since 1987, he has served as a member of the Department of History of Western Carolina University and
teaches both graduate and undergraduate courses in modern European military and political history and the history of international relations. He is a member of US Strategic Command’s Deterrence and Assurance Academic Alliance and serves as a subject-matter expert for and contributor to the US Joint Staff J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA).

George Popp is a Senior Analyst at NSI, Inc., where he conducts research and analysis on a broad range of multidisciplinary analysis projects that focus on understanding the political, economic, and social dynamics of emerging conflict situations and environments throughout the world. George supports NSI’s government initiatives, particularly leading and contributing to human behavior analytics efforts completed for the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) program on behalf of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and in support of direct requests from US Combatant Commanders to the Department of Defense. More
specifically, George has led several NSI Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa), Reachback, and subject matter expert elicitation initiatives in support of the SMA program. George’s degree is in Economics from the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.

Mr. Tom Rieger is the President of NSI, with over 30 years of experience in applying behavioral science to predict patterns of behavior. He is recognized as a pioneer in the study and science of organizational barriers and has consulted on barrier identification and removal for a wide range of organizations in both the private and public sectors. He is an expert in developing statistical models of human behavior, and prior to joining NSI, was the chief architect of predictive models of political radicalism and stability, which
were both used in multiple theaters and cited in several reports to Congress. He also worked on the ground in Iraq during the latter stages of the Second Gulf War to help prioritize reconstruction investments based on the likelihood of minimizing emerging radical attitudes. He is the author of the best-selling book Breaking the Fear Barrier and the upcoming book Curing Organizational Blindness.

Peter Suedfeld (PhD, Princeton; Docteur de l’Universitè, h.c., Nîmes) served in the US Army and the USAF Reserve. He is now Dean Emeritus of Graduate Studies and Professor Emeritus of Psychology at The University of British Columbia. His research focuses on psychological reactions to dangerous, challenging, and traumatic experiences and environments. He has studied high-level political and military leaders, polar and space crews, and survivors of genocide and natural disasters. Among other honors, he is an Officer of the Order of Canada, a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, and a Full Member of the International Academy of Astronautics.

Ms. Sarah A. Canna is a Principal Analyst at NSI. In this capacity, Ms. Canna applies her open-source analysis skills to regions of vital concern to US Combatant Commands, particularly the Middle East and South Asia. To help military planners understand the complex socio-cultural dynamics at play in evolving conflict situations, Ms. Canna developed a Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) tool, which is designed to rapidly respond to emergent crises by pulsing NSI’s extensive subject matter expert (SME) network to provide deep, customized, multidisciplinary analysis for defense and industry clients. This tool has been used to study the so-called Islamic State as well as Eurasian cooperation and conflict. Ms. Canna is also a
lead editor and integrator of white papers, reports, and proceedings focused on violent extremism, influence and deterrence, and adversarial intent. Ms. Canna also supported durability analyses using the NSI State Stability (StaM) model for Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, and (at the megacity level) Dhaka, Bangladesh. Prior to joining NSI, she was an associate within the Social Science Program at Strategic Analysis, Inc. (SA), where she supported multidisciplinary projects ranging from developing and assessing computational social science models, evaluating state instability forecast models, and developing cultural
aptitude taxonomies. Additionally, Ms. Canna provided analytic support to the Defense Science Board (DSB) 2008 task force on Understanding Adversaries, the 2007 DSB summer study on Challenges to Military Operations in Support of US Interests, and the 2006 DSB summer study on 21st Century Strategic Technology Vectors. Prior to joining SA, she was a research associate at Intellibridge Corporation in Washington, D.C., where she provided daily open source analysis to the Commander, US Southern Command and the Commandant, US Coast Guard. She also managed a network of 200-plus subject matter experts, upon whose knowledge Intellibridge analysts relied. Ms. Canna has an MA degree from Georgetown University in Technology and Security Studies. Ms. Canna holds a translation certificate in Spanish from American University and is learning Dari.

This speaker session supported SMA’s CENTCOM project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the CENTCOM project page.