SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion—The Gulf and Egypt

Speakers: Weston Aviles (NSI); Dr. Marco Ehrl (Kutztown University); Dr. Robert Hinck (Monmouth College); Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC); and Dr. Sabrina Polansky (Pagano) (NSI)

Date: 31 March 2020

Panel Description

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. The panelists included Mr. Weston Aviles (NSI), Dr. Marco Ehrl (Kunztown University), Dr. Robert Hinck (Monmouth College), Mr. Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC), AND Dr. Sabrina Polansky (NSI).

At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study in August 2019 to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. CENTCOM asked SMA research teams to consider how drivers of instability in the region—to include long-term internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees, spread of radical ideologies and extremism, great power competition, disruptive non-state actors, and the potential for black swan scenarios—could be mitigated across PMESII levers of national power.

This panel, the fourth in the series, discussed instability dynamics within particular countries in the Gulf and Egypt. Teams from NSI, Monmouth College, Kutztown University, and US Army TRADOC discussed how they used their unique methodologies to understand the drivers and buffers of instability in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf states.

The following questions were addressed in Part IV:

[A1] What events in Egypt (protests, military coup) could result in the US reacting with severe policy shifts and mil- mil restrictions? As a result, would the government of Egypt degrade or deny current access, basing, and overflight (ABO) agreements?

[A2] If the EGY economy continues to fail, which Great Power will lead bail out efforts?

[A7] What happens if there is a revolt in the House of Saud? What happens if there is a collapse of the House of Saud? Will Wahhabi clerics seize or attempt to seize control? Do Saudi forces (especially SANG) stay loyal?

[A9] What would cause the Qatar-Quartet rift to turn into a military conflict? How would the US and other great powers react?

Speaker Session Audio Recording

To access a recording of the session, please email Ms. Nicole Omundson (nomundson@nsiteam.com).

Briefing Materials

Biographies:

Weston Aviles is an analyst at NSI, Inc. He studied criminology and political science at Arizona State University (BS) with minors in Middle Eastern history and economics, and certificates in political thought and leadership, international studies and religion and conflict. Weston then studied Government at the InterDiscplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya, Israel graduate school with a focus in counterterrorism and security studies (MA). His graduate studies focused on Arab Spring dynamics, international security in the MENA
region and radical Islam. Weston is an alumnus of the University of Virginia’s Semester at Sea program and has participated in several academic programs in Israel to study terrorism and counterterrorism. Weston continues a research focus on Middle Eastern politics and conflict studies.

Dr. Marco Ehrl earned his first M.A. in Communication and American Studies from the University of Duisburg-Essen in Germany. He earned his second M.A. in Communication from Central Michigan University and his Ph.D. from Texas A&M University. His research explores European and International crisis narratives, global media, and rhetoric. Using mixed methods, Marco’s research examines how political crisis narrators like the media, public spheres, and political leaders define the causes, consequences, and cures of political crises. Dr. Ehrl has presented his research at conferences including the International Association for Media and Communication Research, the International Society for the Study of Argumentation, the National Communication Association, and the Rhetoric Society of America.

Robert Hinck (Ph.D., Texas A&M University) is an assistant professor in the Department of Communication Studies at Monmouth College. His research centers on global media, strategic narratives, organizational rhetoric, and conflict/negotiation. His program of research examines the formation and sustainment of political cooperation among distinct political communities, and the rhetorical means by which they structure and manage internal and external stakeholders. He holds a certificate of China Studies from the Bush School of Government and Public Service. His work has been published in numerous academic journals, including the International Journal of Press and Politics, International
Journal of Communication, Russian Journal of Communication, and Asian Journal of Communication, and he is the co-author of the book “Global Media and Strategic Narratives of Contested Democracy: Chinese, Russian, and Arabic Media Narratives of the US Presidential Election.” He has worked with the SMA community for over five years, authoring over 20 research reports.

Mr. Howard Lee is a retired US Army Field Artillery Lieutenant Colonel with a combined 40 years of experience as an Army officer, operations research analyst, and models and simulations specialist. He holds a B.S. in Business Administration from Oregon State University and has an M.S. in Systems Management from the University of Southern California. He currently serves as a Senior Research Analyst and Studies & Analysis Team Chief for the TRADOC G-2 Modeling and Simulations Directorate with responsibility for overseeing the Athena Simulation Program. Over the last 30+ years he has performed
duties in models and simulations and/or operations research positions at the Directorate of Simulations for the US Army Europe, Grafenwoehr, GE; the Depth and Simulations Attack Battle Laboratory, Fort Sill, OK; the National Simulations Center, the TRADOC Analysis Center, the Mission Command Battle Laboratory and the Modeling and Simulations Directorate all located at Fort Leavenworth, KS.

Dr. Sabrina Polansky has extensive experience leading teams and projects both in academia and industry, including both government and commercial domains. Though supporting a wide variety of projects and proposals at NSI, her work has focused in four main areas: 1) providing support to DoD’s Strategic Multilayer Analysis (SMA) projects, including rapid applied analysis for CENTCOM, 2) serving as the Principal Investigator and Project Manager for a multi-year contract investigating progress in conflict environments, 3) providing project oversight as the project manager for two AAA titles at a top gaming
company, and 4) contributing thought leadership as one of two developers for a corporate offering focused on enhancing dignity in interactions with customers and employees. Prior to NSI, Dr. Polansky served as the Director (Acting) of a growing behavioral sciences program, as well as a Faculty Fellow Researcher and Lecturer at UCLA. Her work has spanned a wide variety of topics, with particular depth in intergroup relations, injustice, basic and moral emotions (e.g., empathy, moral outrage), and prosocial/antisocial behavior. She maintains an active knowledge base in the broad field of social psychology, and knowledge that spans multiple fields given her experience and leadership on
multidisciplinary projects. Dr. Polansky earned her Ph.D. in Social Psychology (minor in Statistics) from the University of California, Los Angeles, and a dual BA with highest honors in Psychology and Political Science from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

This speaker session supported SMA’s CENTCOM project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the CENTCOM project page.