Speakers: Dr. Michelle Grisé, Dr. Krystyna Marcinek, Anna Dowd, and David Woodworth (RAND)
Date: 1 May 2025
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Michelle Grisé (RAND), Dr. Krystyna Marcinek (RAND), Anna Dowd (RAND), and David Woodworth (RAND) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
The ongoing war in Ukraine is testing Russia’s armed forces in ways they have not experienced in decades. These challenges may prompt Russia to reconstitute, or rebuild, its military within the broader Russian defense establishment following the conclusion of the war. This reconstitution would enable Russia to address areas of weakness and reinforce its strengths. The speakers discussed four potential pathways how Russia might approach this process by evaluating several factors, including historical Russian defense reforms, the performance and attrition of Russian forces in Ukraine, and economic influences, among several others.
The speakers emphasized that Russia’s diplomatic relationships with countries such as China, North Korea, Iran, and Belarus will be key factors in shaping how it reconstructs its forces. They also noted that the lessons Russia draws from the war will likely differ significantly from those learned by Western states and organizations supporting Ukraine, including the United States and NATO. The speakers asserted that a comprehensive analysis of Russia’s reconstitution efforts is needed—one that examines both the pace of reconstruction and the underlying nature of these efforts.
Despite structural challenges, such as the defense industrial base’s entrenched path dependencies, such as its reliance on federal spending, the speakers concluded that a reconstituted Russian military will likely pose a more serious and dangerous threat to Western forces, regardless of how the war in Ukraine ends.
To see more of the speakers’ research on how Russia may reconstitute its military force, then please read their report, “Russia’s Military After Ukraine: Potential Pathways for the Postwar Reconstitution of the Russian Armed Forces.”
Speaker Session Recording
Briefing Materials
Biographies:
Michelle Grisé is a senior policy researcher at RAND and a professor of policy analysis at the RAND School of Public Policy. Her research portfolio includes work on Russian military strategy and foreign policy, Iran, South Asia, homeland defense, and international law. Prior to joining RAND, Grisé was a law clerk at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Texas, a visiting researcher at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, a policy fellow at the Yale Institution for Social and Policy Studies, and a Fulbright fellow in Israel. She received a Ph.D. in history from Yale University, a J.D. from the University of Michigan Law School, and a B.A. in history from the University of Chicago.
Krystyna Marcinek is an associate policy researcher at RAND and a professor of policy analysis at the RAND School of Public Policy. Her work at RAND focuses on Russia, European security, strategic competition, and deterrence. She co-authored numerous reports on the Russian military, Russian subversion, information and cyber operations, and lessons learned from the war in Ukraine. She has also studied the role of emerging technologies in warfare. Before joining RAND, Marcinek held analytical and advisory positions in several government institutions in Poland, where her primary focus was Russian influence on Polish and regional security. She holds a Ph.D. in policy analysis from the RAND School of Public Policy and an M.A. in Russian and East European studies from Jagiellonian University in Poland.
Anna Dowd is a senior international defense researcher at RAND. Her research focuses on transatlantic security and defense, NATO, deterrence, military capabilities, defense strategy and planning, economic security, resilience, defense industrial base and technological innovation. Previously, she served in several senior positions, including at NATO, European Defence Agency, EU Institute for Security Studies and the Polish Ministry of National Defence. She holds a master’s degree in international economic and political relations from the Warsaw School of Economics. She is also a graduate of a joint program of European Union Studies from the Warsaw School of Economics and Institute d’ Études Politiques (SciencePo), as well as the NATO Executive Development Program.
David Woodworth is an associate international and defense research analyst at the RAND where he studies Russian military theory, defense, cyber and space policy. Woodworth joined RAND after retiring from the Air National Guard with the rank of colonel, where he was an Air Force Eurasia Regional Area Strategist with extensive experience in strategic and operational planning, defense policy, and adversary decision-making. Woodworth has served as a United Nations Military Observer, Strategic Planner at U.S. European Command and the National Guard Bureau, and Chief of Research at the Russia Strategic Initiative. He holds a B.A. in History and Russian from the University of Pennsylvania, an M.A. in Russian Area Studies from Georgetown University, and a J.D. and LL.M. in National Security and Cybersecurity Law from George Washington University Law School.
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