Speaker: Ambassador Catherine Royle (NATO, Joint Force Command Brunssum)
Date: 8 April 2025
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Ambassador Catherine Royle (NATO, Joint Force Command Brunssum) and Stuart Smith (NATO, Joint Force Command Brunssum) as part of its SMA SDF Speaker Series.
For Western allies to properly deter unwanted Russian actions, there must be a shared allied perception of Russian threats and behaviors. Ambassador Royle emphasized that this extends to a shared understanding of Russia’s perception of Western threats and behaviors as well. She stressed that such understanding is critical to success and that comprehending Russian behavior requires a deep appreciation of how Russian culture, history, and current strategic factors influence Russia’s worldview and how Russian decision-makers perceive conflict. Additionally, effective deterrence requires an understanding of the adversary’s interpretation of risks, rewards, and the consequences of escalation toward conflict.
The Western alliance’s nuclear weapons are considered the ultimate deterrent; however, it seeks to deter aggression well below the threshold of relying on nuclear capabilities. Ambassador Royle noted that NATO has significantly increased its military exercises since 2015, following Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea, and that the messages these actions sent to Russia may not have been fully appreciated by the Western alliance. She also emphasized that deterrence should be a whole-of-society effort, not merely a demonstration of military force.
Mr. Smith described the Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum’s (JFCBS) Assessing Deterrence Project, which developed a model comparing Russian interpretations of NATO actions with NATO interpretations of Russian actions along a scale ranging from benign to acts of war. The model was constructed by interviewing a wide array of subject matter experts (SMEs) with diverse backgrounds. Mr. Smith demonstrated how the model reveals that both Russian perceptions of NATO actions and NATO perceptions of Russian actions have grown more warlike since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both speakers emphasized that the database informing the model is continuously expanding as actions and reactions between NATO and Russia are evaluated by experts. As the database grows, it will help NATO identify the most appropriate forms of influence and communication to strengthen its deterrence posture toward Russia.
Speaker Session Recording
Briefing Materials:
Biography: Catherine Royle joined NATO in January 2015 as Political Adviser to the Commander at Joint Force Command Brunssum after a long career as a British diplomat. She joined the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in 1986 following studies at the Universities of Oxford (BA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics) and Wales (MscEcon in Strategic Studies). After an initial stint in London, Catherine’s first post was in Chile as it transitioned from dictatorship to democracy. She returned to the UK at the end of 1991 where she worked on various aspects of UK policy in Iraq until 1997. Catherine then served in Dublin as First Secretary for EU and Economic Affairs. From 2001-2003 she served as Head of the Policy Unit on the Convention for the Future of Europe and policy advisor to Peter Hain – the UK’s ministerial representative at the Convention – during the drafting of the Lisbon Treaty. Catherine spent seven years in Latin America where she served as Deputy Head of Mission in Buenos Aires, and then as Her Majesty’s Ambassador to Venezuela where she worked closely with UK business to protect and promote investment in a politically volatile environment, and to build a partnership with Venezuela on tackling narcotic trafficking. Catherine was posted to Kabul in September 2010 as Deputy Ambassador at the British Embassy. In August 2012 she took up the role as Head of the Secretariat of the International Police Co-ordination Board. In that role she reinvigorated the organisation and partnered MoI in developing a 10 Year Vision for the ANP/MoI. Catherine’s work on Afghanistan continued in JFCBS. She was a regular visitor and firm supporter of ANP / MOI until the end of the NATO mission. Her time in JFCBS has coincided with NATO’s return to its core mission of deterrence and defence. She has been actively involved in the defence planning for Eastern Europe since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Catherine is also leading a project on assessing deterrence. Catherine is Commodore of the NATO Tri-border sailing club. Outside NATO Catherine is a member of the Advisory Board of Wilton Park, an FCDO body, and an Hon Fellow of Somerville College Oxford. She has been selected to become Principal of Somerville in September 2025, and will leave NATO in June 2025 to take up that post. She has two surprisingly well-adjusted sons.
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