Saudi Vision 2030 vs Iran Vision 1979

Speaker: Karim Sadjadpour (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

Date: 8 January 2025

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Karim Sadjadpour (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) as part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series.  

Saudi Arabia and Iran have a deeply rooted rivalry stemming from their contrasting visions for the future of their individual nations and the broader Middle East. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud significantly influence their countries’ bilateral relations and domestic policies as autocratic leaders. 

Mr. Sadjadpour highlighted the stark differences between Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and Iran’s Vision 1979. Vision 2030 focuses on modernization, economic diversification, and strengthening ties with Western allies. In contrast, Vision 1979 invokes Iran’s revolutionary legacy, reinforcing its autocratic regime, and promoting anti-Western sentiment. While their rivalry has occasionally risked military escalation, recent efforts between the nation’s leaders have led to a normalization of bilateral political relations. Mr. Sadjadpour emphasized how their competing strategies shape internal policies and significantly impact regional stability. He noted that Vision 2030 appeals strongly to young Saudis with its promise of growth and social liberalization, while Vision 1979 capitalizes on Iranian social grievances. Iran’s policies often rely on oppression, violence, and strict policing to enforce compliance. Mr. Sadjadpour also mentioned that Iran’s “Axis of Western Resistance” has recently fragmented with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, making it more difficult for Iran to pursue its regional objectives. 

Mr. Sadjadpour concluded that Vision 1979 seeks stability within Iran but fosters instability among its neighbors. In contrast, Vision 2030 aims for cooperation and regional stability, though it carries risks, such as the possibility of an Islamic fundamentalist backlash or failing to meet the high expectations set by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Mr. Sadjadpour forecasted a potentially tumultuous future for Iran. Several outcomes include a gradual implosion driven by economic and ideological decline, the continuation of the status quo, or a significant shift in political policies and ideology following Supreme Leader Khamenei’s death of old age. 

To read more of Mr. Sadjadpour’s research on Saudi-Iranian political relations, see his latest article, “The New Battle for the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and Iran’s Clash of Visions.” 

Speaker Session Recording

This session is not available.

Briefing Materials

Biography: Karim Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East. He is a contributing writer at the Atlantic and a frequent guest on media outlets such as the PBS NewsHour, NPR, and CNN. He regularly advises senior U.S., European, and Asian officials, has testified numerous times before the U.S. Congress, and is an advisor to the Aspen Institute’s Congressional Program on the Middle East.

He has written on Iran and the Middle East through the prism of cybersecurity, neuroscience, cinema, satire and sexuality, including recent essays in the New York Times, Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, and Time Magazine. He is currently writing a book on radicalism scheduled to be published by Random House/Knopf. He was previously an analyst with the International Crisis Group, based in Tehran and Washington.

He has lived in Latin America, Europe, and the Middle East (including both Iran and the Arab world) and speaks Persian, Italian, Spanish, and proficient Arabic. He is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, teaching a class on U.S. foreign policy and the Middle East.