The CCP-ification of Pacific Islands: What it Means for U.S. Strategy and What Can Be Done

Speaker: Cleo Paskal (Foundation for the Defense of Democracies)

Date: 8 October 2024

Speaker Session Summary

China is expanding its influence in many Asia-Pacific countries by offering economic incentives and other forms of “good will,” which Chinese Communist Party (CCP) members use to fosters political corruption. This political corruption allows the CCP to build political leverage over foreign government officials, ensuring pro-Chinese policy. Ms. Paskal emphasized that growing CCP influence in a country rarely benefits its citizens. CCP officials often propose economic deals, investments, and development prospects through initiatives like China’s Belt and Road Initiative; however, they typically export Chinese workers to the project, fail to deliver on promises, or leave projects incomplete. Ms. Paskal noted that many development projects, such as ports, also serve strategic purposes for China. 

Ms. Paskal presented several case studies to illustrate the impact of CCP political influence. One example is the ousting of Solomon Islands politician, Daniel Suidani, as Premier of Malaita Province following a no-confidence vote. Suidani had blocked Chinese investments in Malaita Province, due to his opposition to CCP persecution of individuals with outspoken religious views. The CCP lobbied other politicians in the Solomon Islands to remove Suidani, installing a pro-CCP politician and paving the way for increased Chinese investment. Although Suidani was eventually reelected by his constituents, reflecting their support for his anti-CCP policies, he was recently arrested in connection with a peaceful protest from 2021. While CCP involvement in his arrest is not explicit, there is likely a connection. 

Ms. Paskal commented that US political withdrawal in the Asia Pacific following the collapse of the Soviet Union allowed China to fill the void, with Australia now taking the lead in countering malign CCP influence. However, Ms. Paskal argued that Australia could have done much more to combat CCP influence in the Solomon Islands and can also take stronger measures at home to address CCP corruption, particularly in its commercial real estate sector. She stressed that the United States and its allies must actively target corruption in the region and anticipate that any major commercial endeavor by a Western country will face a CCP counteroffensive designed to undermine its integrity and success. 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

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Biography: Cleo Paskal is a non-resident senior fellow at FDD focusing on the Indo-Pacific region, in particular, the Pacific Islands and India. She has testified before the U.S. Congress, regularly lectures and moderates for seminars for the U.S. military, and has taught at defense colleges in the United States, United Kingdom, India, Canada, and Oman. From 2006 to 2022, she was an associate fellow at Chatham House, London, where, among other responsibilities, she was research lead on the multi-year futures project “Perspectives on Strategic Shifts in the Indo-Pacific 2019-2024.” She is widely published in the academic and popular press and has written for (among many others): The Diplomat, Defense News, The Telegraph, South China Morning Post, The Australian, Japan Times, The World Today, and International Affairs and is currently the North America Special Correspondent for The Sunday Guardian (India) newspaper.