Russian Adaptation to Sanctions: The Military Industrial Complex and Regional Dynamics
Speaker: Elina Ribakova (Peterson Institute for International Economics; Director of the International Program at Kyiv School of Economics.)
Date: 10 December 2024
Speaker Session Summary
The Russian economy has proven stubbornly resilient to Western sanctions. Ms. Ribakova discussed this resilience through two lenses: the military industrial complex and the economic convergence of Russia’s regions. While the thousands of entities that make up the Russian military industrial complex are varied and geographically dispersed, they share key vulnerabilities, including import dependence and insufficient human capital. Ms. Ribakova and her team at the KSE Institute demystify the secretive sector by analyzing its finances, logistics, and trade networks.
Far from benefiting only the key arms manufacturers, the Russian war economy has helped the country’s poorest regions catch up. Sign up bonuses from the army, an exceptionally tight labor market, and massive fiscal stimulus have reshaped the economy. But these factors have exacerbated the already-painful effects of Western sanctions and an overheated economy. Ms. Ribakova analyzed the consequences of Russia’s wartime spending spree, and how they fit into Russia’s future prospects for growth and ability to wage war.
Speaker Session Recording
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Briefing Materials
Congressional report: Https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/09.10.2024-Majority-Staff-Report-The-U.S.-Technology-Fueling-Russias-War-in-Ukraine.pdf
Biography: Elina Ribakova is a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, starting in April 2023. She is also a Non-Resident Fellow at Bruegel and a Director of the International Affairs Program and Vice President for Foreign Policy at the Kyiv School of Economics. Her research focuses on global markets, economic statecraft, and economic sovereignty. She has been a Senior Adjunct Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (2020-2023) and a research fellow at the London School of Economics (2015-2017). Elina has over 15 years of financial markets experience. She held several senior-level roles, including as Deputy Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance in Washington DC, Managing Director, Head of EEMEA Research, at Deutsche Bank in London, leadership positions at Amundi (Pioneer) Asset Management, and at Citigroup, as Director and Chief Economist for Russia and CIS. Prior to that, Elina was an economist at the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC (1999-2008) working on financial stability, macroeconomic policy design for commodity-exporting countries and fiscal policy. Elina is a seasoned public speaker, she has participated in and led multiple panels with leading academics, policymakers and C-level executives. She frequently collaborates with CNN, BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC, and NPR. She is often quoted by and contributed OpEds to several global media, including the NYT, WSJ, FT, Washington Post, the Guardian, Le Monde, El Pais and several other media outlets. Ms. Ribakova holds an MSc in Economics from the University of Warwick (1999), where she was awarded the Shiv Nath prize for outstanding academic performance, and an MSc in Data Science from the University of Virginia (expected graduation, May 2023).
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