Speaker: Jim Mitre (RAND Global and Emerging Risks)
Date: 10 June 2025
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Jim Mitre (RAND Global and Emerging Risks) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could reach or exceed human-level cognitive abilities across a wide range of disciplines, potentially revolutionizing how governments and societies operate at large. Mr. Mitre compared AGI to a team of geniuses working in tandem, capable of producing transformative outcomes in different sectors and industries at once. While AGI offers strategic advantages—such as keeping the United States at the forefront of innovation—it also presents significant national security concerns.
Mr. Mitre outlined five major national security challenges posed by AGI: 1) wonder weapons, 2) systemic shifts in power, 3) nonexperts empowered to develop weapons of mass destruction, 4) artificial entities with agency, and 5) instability. He emphasized that progress in addressing one of these problems may undermine others.
A wonder weapon enabled by AGI could take many forms, such as advanced cyber capabilities or tools capable of accurately predicting the outcomes of complex scenarios; however, no such tools currently exist. A seismic shift in global power could occur if a nation successfully adopts and deploys AGI, potentially gaining a decisive strategic advantage as the first adopter. AGI might also increase ease of access to dangerous knowledge—providing simplified, actionable instructions for creating weapons of mass destruction, thereby enabling non-experts to pose serious threats. Furthermore, AGI could evolve to operate with a degree of autonomy, acting independently on the global stage and potentially diverging from its intended purpose. Also, the pursuit of AGI could spark a technological arms race, as nations rush to secure the first-mover advantage, increasing the risk of instability and miscalculation.
Mr. Mitre stressed that progress in mitigating one of these risks could unintentionally exacerbate another, underscoring the complexity of AGI governance. Although AGI is not yet a reality, its potential near-term development demands proactive analysis and policy planning.
To read more of Mr. Mitre’s research on AGI and its potential national security implications, please view his latest RAND article, with co-author Dr. Joel Predd, entitled, “Artificial General Intelligence’s Five Hard National Security Problems.”
Speaker Session Recording
Briefing Materials
Biography: Jim Mitre is the inaugural vice president and director of RAND Global and Emerging Risks, which delivers rigorous and objective public policy research on the most consequential challenges to civilization and global security. Mitre previously served as the director of the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Program. Before joining RAND, Mitre spent over a decade serving in multiple roles in the Department of Defense where he had responsibility for defense strategy, strategic analysis, scenario development, and force planning. He served as a senior advisor to the deputy secretary of defense for data and artificial intelligence, principal director and acting deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development, and as the executive director of the 2018 National Defense Strategy. Mitre was a presidential management fellow in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and served in Kabul, Afghanistan, and Nairobi, Kenya. Mitre has also spent time in the private sector as the chief strategy officer at Govini, an early-stage national security technology company, and, at the onset of his career, co-founded a private counterterrorism research organization, the SITE Institute. Mitre holds a J.D. from the University of Virginia School of Law and a B.B.A. from the University of Michigan Business School.
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