U.S. Military Theories of Victory for a War with the People’s Republic of China

Speakers: Jacob Heim (RAND) & Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga (RAND)

Date: 13 November 2024

Speaker Session Summary

The United States has not had to seriously consider conflict escalation with a near-peer adversary that could result in a conflict that ends in large-scale destruction since the Cold War. However, it must now consider the potential for escalating toward that exact kind of conflict with China. Mr. Heim and Mr. Beauchamp-Mustafaga present US options for avoiding or managing escalation with China through theories of victory. The presenters defined a theory of victory (TOV) as a causal explanation of why one’s side will be victorious; an effective TOV has clear objectives, be concise, and able to consider how other countries will react. Mr. Heim emphasized that a comprehensive TOV also involves a whole-of-society approach; however, the presenters’ current research focused solely on military TOVs. It is also essential to understand the adversary’s TOV. 

The presenters outlined a spectrum of war outcomes ranging from destruction to total victory. They emphasized that limiting war aims reduces the risk of escalation. The real risk of escalation arises from a tit-for-tat confrontation that could lead to destruction. They described five TOVs: dominance, denial, devaluing, brinkmanship, and cost-imposition. Dominance was described as leaving the opponent unable to physically continue fighting. Heim noted that this is the only TOV that does not rely on coercion. Coercive TOVs depend on the opponent choosing to stop fighting while still physically capable of fighting. These TOVs include denial, which forces the opponent to believe it cannot achieve its objectives; devalue, which convinces the opponent that achieving its objective is not worth the costs; brinkmanship, which aims to demonstrate a higher level of risk acceptance than the opponent; and cost-imposition, which inflicts costs the adversary is unwilling to bear. These coercive TOVs depend on factors such as identifying the correct pressure points, the ability to target them, and mutual trust that attacks will cease once one side surrenders. 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Report: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA1743-1.html

Biographies:

Jacob Heim is a senior policy researcher at RAND and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. He specializes in strategic assessment and defense analysis with a background in international relations and mathematics. His research has focused on the military balance in the Western Pacific, USAF overseas force posture, wargaming, and the challenge posed by anti-access, area-denial capabilities. Heim served as a strategic analyst in the office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for Strategy and Force Development, where he advised the DASD on U.S. defense strategy and the evolution of military capabilities. Previously, he was a senior operations research analyst with the MITRE Corporation. He holds an M.A. with honors from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and a B.A. with distinction in mathematics from Amherst College.

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga is a senior policy researcher at RAND, where he focuses on Asian security issues. His research interests include Chinese foreign policy, Chinese military strategy, Chinese influence operations, Chinese nuclear strategy, Chinese deterrence signaling, the Korean Peninsula and INDOPACOM posture. Prior to joining RAND, Beauchamp-Mustafaga was the editor of China Brief at The Jamestown Foundation. He has also spent time with the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the Center for International and Strategic Studies at Peking University (CISS), and the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC). He is a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, a Pacific Forum Young Leader, and a Nonresident Fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research. In total, Beauchamp-Mustafaga lived in China for over three years and completed a year each of high school, university and master’s education at seven schools in five cities throughout China.