Public Support for Self-Defence in Taiwan: The Current State of Research
Speakers: Dr. Charles K.S. Wu, Fang-Yu Chen, and Yao-Yuan Yeh (University of Southern Alabama)
Date: 14 August 2024
Speaker Session Summary
Chinese President Xi Jinping has indicated that an invasion of Taiwan by 2027 is a distinct possibility, if not imminent. The concern of a Chinese invasion from the international community intensified following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As the conflict in Ukraine persisted, speculation grew about the potential implications of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, including the Taiwanese population’s willingness to resist militarily. Dr. Wu and the team conducted a literature review on this topic, highlighting factors influencing Taiwanese resolve to fight. The review revealed that as concerns over a Chinese invasion escalated, so did the volume of literature on Taiwanese willingness to fight, reflecting increased international apprehension.
One key finding was that Taiwanese citizens’ perception of US support significantly impacted their willingness to fight, with belief in US assistance increasing willingness by 7% among respondents. Surprisingly, increased activity by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) around Taiwan also heightened the respondent’s willingness to fight, as these images bolstered their belief in potential US intervention. Dr. Wu also noted that partisanship plays a crucial role; members of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) were significantly more inclined to resist a Chinese invasion compared to members of the Kuomintang Party (KMT), who were more likely to favor reunification with China and thus less willing to defend Taiwanese autonomy. Additionally, military training notably influenced willingness to fight, with members of the Taiwanese Air Force showing the highest resolve. Dr. Wu concluded the presentation by posing critical unknown questions about how casualties might affect the resilience of Taiwanese fighters. He emphasized that seeing the cost of war firsthand may weaken resolve or strengthen it.
Speaker Session Recording
Briefing Materials
Presentation slides:
1) Taiwanese support for self-defense after the Russo-Ukrainian War
2) Public Support for the use of force in non-Western and non-Major powers: the case of a China-Taiwan War
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/01925121221120792
3) Taiwanese public opinion on the Chinese and US Military presence in the Taiwan Strait https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/china-quarterly/article/taiwanese-public-opinion-on-the-chinese-and-us-military-presence-in-the-taiwan-strait/B247FA56913E3D10D6512F931815FE8F
Biographies:
Dr. Yao-Yuan Yeh is Professor and Fayez Sarofim – Cullen Trust for Higher Education Endowed Chair in International Studies, Department Chair of International Studies & Modern Languages, Department Chair of Political Science, Director of the Master of Diplomacy & Strategic Affairs Program, Director of the Taiwan & East Asia Studies Program, and Director of the Mandarin Center of the Universities of St. Thomas and Wenzao Ursuline at the University of St. Thomas. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from Texas A&M University and a B.A. in Political Science from National Taiwan University. His research focuses on public opinion, foreign policy, international security, US-China-Taiwan relations, East Asian politics, terrorism and political violence, and quantitative methods.
Dr. Fang-Yu Chen is an assistant professor of Political Science at Soochow University, Taiwan. His research interests include authoritarian politics, party politics, political behavior in new democracies, and the US-China-Taiwan relations. Since 2014, he became the co-founder and co-editor of the website “Who Governs TW,” which aims to become a Mandarin version of the Monkey Cage, promoting public awareness and participation in politics. He is also the Chief Editor of “US Taiwan Watch,” a 501(c)(3) NPO registered in Washington State which reports politics of US-Taiwan-China relations.
Dr. Charles Wu is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science and Criminal Justice at the University of South Alabama. His primary research interests fall into the intersection between International Relations and American Politics, and his research agenda focuses on the factors that influence public opinion on military operations overseas. Dr Wu’s academic and policy work have been published in Social Politics, Scientific Data, Journal of East Asian Studies, Journal of Asian and African Studies, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, The National Interest, The Diplomat, and The Pacific Forum. His latest coauthored book is Presidentialism, Violence, and the Prospect of Democracy (Lexington Book, 2021).
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