Security Risks of Climate Action

Speaker: Andrew Gilmour (Berghof Foundation)

Date: 15 January 2025

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Andrew Gilmour (Berghof Foundation) as part of its SMA AFOE Phase III Climate Effects Speaker Series.

The negative effects of climate change on societies and their security are well-documented; however, the speed and scale at which climate change mitigation must occur to avoid the worst effects may bring destabilizing consequences as well. However, despite the risks of rapid climate change mitigation efforts, Mr. Gilmour emphasized that inaction on climate change poses a far greater threat. He referred to this complex problem set as the “new triple nexus,” encompassing climate change, conflict, and migration.

One positive example of climate action is the US military’s mid-2000s initiative to use renewable energy to fuel bases and outposts. However, Mr. Gilmour noted that the global transition to green energy will inevitably create “winners” and “losers.” This shift, particularly the move away from fossil fuels, threatens economies—many of which are already insecure—that rely heavily on oil and coal revenues. Such disruptions could lead to instability, revolutions, and the rise of militant groups. In these volatile environments, exploitation of workers and miners is also likely to increase.

The transition will also intensify competition for critical resources required for green technologies, such as cobalt for solar panels and wind turbines. Many of these resources are concentrated in unstable countries, like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, heightening the risk of external exploitation. Mr. Gilmour pointed out that competition for these minerals is already evident between major powers, such as the United States and China, who have imposed export controls on technologies like semiconductor chips. Mr. Gilmour stressed that international cooperation will be essential for effective climate change mitigation. Transparent community engagement by governments will also be critical to prevent conflict and ensure a just transition.

To read more of Mr. Gilmour’s research on the link between climate change effects and conflict, please read his book, The Burning Question: Climate and conflict – why does it matter?

Speaker Session Recording

This speaker session supported SMA’s Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) Phase III project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the AFOE Phase III project page.

Briefing Materials

Biography: Andrew Gilmour is Executive Director of the Berghof Foundation. Before joining the Berghof Foundation in May 2020, Andrew served 30 years at the United Nations, most recently as Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights from 2016 to 2019 and as Political Director in the Office of the Secretary-General in New York from 2012 to 2016. He previously held senior UN positions in numerous conflict zones including Iraq, South Sudan, the Middle East, the Balkans, Afghanistan and West Africa.

With masters degrees from Oxford University and the London School of Economics, Andrew was later an Adjunct Fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. In 2019 Andrew was awarded a Visiting Fellowship at All Souls College Oxford to research links between climate change, human rights and conflict. In 2020 he became a Senior Fellow at the School of Oriental and African Studies, London. His writing has appeared in numerous publications such as the New York Times, Financial Times, The Economist and many others. In his recent book The Burning Question. Climate and conflict – why does it matter? he explores how climate change contributes to conflict and how solutions can be advanced. A British national whose home-base is in Scotland, Andrew is married with four children. His interests are in classical music, forestry, environment, literature and history.