Deterrence and escalation maneuver in a two-peer environment: Developing a new escalation management strategy for the United States

Speaker: Dr. Anna Péczeli (Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

Date: 16 January 2025

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Anna Péczeli (Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) as part of its SMA SDF Speaker Series.   

The contemporary nuclear security environment is far more complex than during the Cold War when nuclear deterrence was first conceptualized. The United States and its allies now face a multilateral world where adversaries collaborate and coordinate efforts, raising the risk of conflict escalation across multiple theaters. Dr. Péczeli emphasized that while Cold War-era escalation management strategies (escalation dominance, brinkmanship, and conflict avoidance) provide valuable lessons, they are inadequate to today’s ambiguous and uncertain security landscape. Attempting to follow these limited frameworks poses significant risks in the current environment. 

Conflict avoidance, while the safest and most cost-effective approach, appears increasingly unattainable as adversaries exhibit heightened aggression. Additionally, prevailing literature undermines the notion that maintaining a larger nuclear arsenal than adversaries leads to a reduced risk of conflict. Dr. Péczeli reviewed four established requirements of an escalation management strategy: 1) developing the right capabilities, 2) showing commitment and resolve, 3) balancing the stakes of all actors involved in a crisis, and 4) anticipating uncertainties within the security environment. She then proposed three additional requirements 5) preparing for multi-dimensional escalation, 6) expecting unpredictability and dynamic shifts in adversaries’ escalation patterns, and 7) developing adaptable approaches to escalation management. The United States must be prepared for unexpected actions and events to successfully manage modern conflicts and nuclear escalation. 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Briefing Slides:

Biography:  Dr. Anna Péczeli is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and she is an affiliate at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. Her research focuses on U.S. nuclear posture, in particular the changes and continuities in U.S. nuclear strategy since the end of the Cold War. Her work has appeared in the Washington Quarterly, the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, Strategic Studies Quarterly, and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, among other outlets.