Assessing the Evolving Russian Nuclear Threat
Speakers: Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Nicholas Lokker, and Heli Hautala (Center for a New American Security) and Michael Kofman (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
Date: 17 April 2024
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Nicholas Lokker, and Heli Hautala (Center for a New American Security), and Michael Kofman (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.
The changing nuclear rhetoric and actions from Russian leadership during the Ukraine War has put US and Western leaders on edge. Mr. Lokker, in his latest article co-authored for CNAS entitled “Assessing the Evolving Russian Nuclear Threat,” discusses the implications of evolving Russian nuclear discourse and actions. He identifies four overarching objectives driving Putin and other Russian leaders heightened nuclear rhetoric: 1) deter intervention by the West in the Ukraine conflict, 2) compel Ukraine to comply with Russian demands, 3) project Russia’s image as a formidable global power to the international community, and 4) reinforce the perception of Russia’s strength domestically.
The rhetoric emanating from Russian leaders regarding Russian nuclear capabilities has been inconsistent, altering between downplaying the prospect of nuclear first use and elaborating on the conditions under which a first strike might be deemed permissible. Mr. Lokker suggests that this ambiguity is a deliberate strategy by Russian leadership to sow uncertainty among the US and its Western allies.
The discourse also delves into what constitutes an existential threat to Russia, with Putin even suggesting that a threat to his regime could be considered such. Actions undertaken by the Russian nuclear forces, such as the deployment of nuclear weapons and delivery systems to Belarus, have raised concerns in the US and the West. Additionally, Russia’s decision to withdraw from the New START nuclear arms agreement has opened avenues for increased nuclear deployment and potential nuclear proliferation among US adversaries like Iran and North Korea. Mr. Lokker underscores the importance of acknowledging the significant disparity between Russian rhetoric and actions, emphasizing that the ambiguity in Russian nuclear policy heightens the risk of inadvertent escalation.
Speaker Session Recording
Briefing Materials
Biographies:
Andrea Kendall-Taylor is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS. She works on national security challenges facing the United States and Europe, with a focus on Russia, authoritarianism and threats to democracy, and the state of the transatlantic alliance. She spent a decade in the U.S. intelligence community, where she was deputy national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council from 2015 to 2018.
Michael Kofman is a Senior Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on the Russian military and Eurasian security issues.
Nicholas Lokker is a Research Associate for the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS. His work explores the development of the political and security order in Europe, focusing in particular on the integration and enlargement of the European Union as well as the evolving roles of Russia and the United States in the region.
Heli Hautala is an Adjunct Senior Fellow for the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS. She specializes in Northern European security and in Russia.
This speaker session supported SMA’s Strategic Deterrence Frameworks (SDF) project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the SDF project page.
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