Speakers: Dr. Juljan Krause (University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation), Dr. Kimberly Peh (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), & Dr. Spenser Warren (Harvard Kennedy School of Government’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs)
Date: 20 March 2025
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Juljan Krause (University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation), Dr. Kimberly Peh (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), and Dr. Spenser Warren (Harvard Kennedy School of Government’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
Emerging technologies have the potential to significantly affect strategic stability between states; however, their true impacts are usually hard to predict. Because the relationship between technological advancement and strategic stability is complex and not easily defined, the speakers focused on two key mechanisms that may clarify how technological developments can lead to escalation between states. These mechanisms include whether a technology can (1) alter a state’s real or perceived strategic advantage or disadvantage and (2) increase or decrease levels of uncertainty and ambiguity in state-to-state interactions.
The speakers suggested that Russia is unlikely to derive significant strategic advantages from its emerging technologies, whereas China is more likely to benefit from its technological advancements. As a result, China may be more inclined to act in ways that disrupt the existing balance of power and weaken strategic stability. According to the speakers, states that perceive themselves as holding a technological advantage may be more prone to escalating conflicts, potentially undermining stability. However, it was also noted that states perceiving a disadvantage may act aggressively as well, albeit for different strategic reasons. The discussion focused on three emerging areas of concern: hypersonic weapons, quantum technologies, and artificial intelligence (AI). Russia often views technological advancements as status symbols as well as potential military advantages. While Russia’s development of hypersonic missiles enhances its warfighting capabilities, these weapons do not appear to confer a decisive advantage over the United States or other Western powers.
Both Russia and China view AI as a force multiplier and are incorporating it into dual-use technologies, including cyber warfare capabilities and nuclear defense systems. China identifies AI as a key enabler in what it terms the “intelligentization” of warfare—a concept that frames future conflict as a contest between integrated systems. Additionally, China’s recent breakthroughs in quantum computing are considered especially significant. Unlike previous Chinese technological advances, which often were adaptations of Western innovations, China’s progress in quantum technologies represents a distinctly Chinese technological advancement. This advantage may allow China to challenge the United States in new ways, potentially making it a destabilizing actor.
Speaker Session Recording
Briefing Materials
Biographies:
Dr. Juljan Krause is a Fellow in Technology and International Security at the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. His interdisciplinary research focuses on the international security implications of emerging technologies, with a particular emphasis on quantum computing and AI. Juljan holds a PhD in Computer Science and International Relations, investigating how quantum technologies reshape global power dynamics. Prior to academia, he served as a senior policy adviser to the UK government on emerging technologies and regulatory affairs, including roles with the Cabinet Office and the Competition and Markets Authority. His work bridges technical expertise and strategic analysis, contributing to policy discussions on global security challenges.
Dr. Kimberly Peh is a postdoctoral research fellow at the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Her research is centered on conflict prevention, with a regional focus on East Asia. Currently, she is working on projects related to nuclear crisis management in the Korean Peninsula, the de-escalation of conflict between the US and China, and technology competition between the major powers. She holds a PhD and an MA in Political Science from the University of Notre Dame and a joint BA in Political Science from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the National University of Singapore. She has published in various policy and academic outlets, including the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the European Journal of International Security, Global Environmental Politics, International Studies Perspectives, and the North Korean Review.
Dr. Spenser A. Warren is an incoming Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. He is currently a Postdoctoral Fellow in Technology and International Security at the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. His research explores the intersection of nuclear strategy, emerging technologies, and great power competition, focusing on the political forces that impact how states develop novel technologies and integrate them into grand strategy and nuclear doctrine. His current book project examines the factors that drive Russia’s nuclear modernization in the 21st century and the implications of novel nuclear weapons on Russian foreign policy and American security. He holds a PhD in Political Science from Indiana University Bloomington, where he was also a Graduate Affiliate of the Indiana University Russian Studies Workshop.
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