Speaker: Lyle Morris (Asia Society Policy Institute)
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Lyle Morris (Asia Society Policy Institute) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has launched the largest purge of leadership within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), primarily targeting the PLA Rocket Force and the Equipment Development Department, in an effort to bring the military more firmly under Chinese Communist Party (CCP) control. While the primary focus has been on the Rocket Force—which also oversees China’s nuclear arsenal —Xi has also begun removing leadership from the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). His attempts to strengthen CCP-PLA ties have led to widespread allegations of corruption and may be contributing to a slowdown in the PLA’s modernization efforts. This slowdown is significant, as Xi has ordered the PLA to be capable of invading and occupying Taiwan by 2027—a year symbolically marking the 100th anniversary of the PLA’s founding.
In the fall of 2023, three of the six top ministers of the Central Military Commission (CMC) were removed for various reasons, including corruption and suspected intelligence leaks. Since assuming power in 2012, Xi’s purge has been widespread as he has removed at least 79 senior PLA officials at the lieutenant general or rear admiral level or higher. These actions threaten to disrupt the chain of command and may adversely affect the morale of PLA units. Xi has also contributed to internal distrust within the military by establishing whistleblower initiatives to combat corruption. Mr. Morris argued that these and other reforms have largely failed due to deep-rooted, systemic issues within the PLA that predate Xi’s leadership.
Mr. Morris concluded that Xi’s purges and the resulting erosion of trust between the CCP and the PLA are likely to degrade the PLA’s ability to successfully invade Taiwan. However, he cautioned that this does not preclude Xi from ordering military action against Taiwan, citing historical examples of Chinese leadership committing to conflict even when their military forces were not in optimal condition.
Speaker Session Recording
Briefing Materials
Biography: Lyle J. Morris is Senior Fellow for Foreign Policy and National Security at Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. Prior to joining ASPI, Lyle was a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation leading projects on Chinese military modernization and Asia-Pacific security from 2011-2022. From 2019 to 2021, Morris served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) as the Country Director for China, advising OSD on defense relations between the Department of Defense and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and on Indo-Pacific maritime security. He received the Office of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Exceptional Public Service for his service. Before joining RAND, Lyle was the 2010–11 Next Generation Fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) and a research intern with the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Lyle has lived and studied in Beijing, China for four years, where he studied Mandarin at the Inter-University Program for Chinese Language Studies (IUP) at Tsinghua University and later worked at Dentsu Advertising and the China Economist Journal. Morris holds an MA in international affairs from the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA), earning a Certificate in East Asian Studies from Columbia’s Weatherhead East Asian Institute; and BA in international business from Western Washington University.
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