Dynamic Parity: The Nuclear Strategy We Need

Speakers:

Dr. Adam Lowther (National Institute for Deterrence Studies) & Curtis McGiffin (National
Institute for Deterrence Studies)

Date: 24 October 2024

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Adam Lowther (National Institute for Deterrence Studies) & Curtis McGiffin (National Institute for Deterrence Studies) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.

Russia, China, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) are expanding their nuclear capabilities relative to the United States. However, the current US nuclear modernization program does not address the broader balance of nuclear power between the United States and its adversaries; it only seeks to replace aging weapons systems with new ones. Dr. Lowther and COL (Ret) McGiffin advocated for pursuing nuclear parity that responds to and balances the changes in the nuclear stockpiles and capabilities of US adversaries. COL (Ret) McGiffin highlighted that adversarial coordination could result in their collective nuclear capabilities far surpassing those of the United States. He also noted recent diplomatic issues in bringing US adversaries to the negotiation table, warning that this trend could lead to a future with little to no formal arms control agreements. 

Achieving nuclear parity requires focus in four key areas: strategic stability, adversary behavior, US ally involvement, and damage limitation. Dr. Lowther compared the pursuit of strategic parity with the concept of strategic efficiency, which involves replacing old nuclear systems with an exact number of missiles perceived as necessary, rather than building a larger stockpile. He emphasized the psychological and strategic importance of symmetry in nuclear systems, as symmetrical numbers are more easily understood by adversaries and foster mutual understanding. He also highlighted the value of redundant systems that can be easily replicated at scale so when one fails or is destroyed, another takes its place. Dr. Lowther emphasized that the US nuclear budget comprises only 6% of the Department of Defense’s budget, arguing that an increase in this share could significantly enhance the US nuclear arsenal. 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Report: Dynamic-Parity-Report.pdf (thinkdeterrence.com)

Biographies:

Adam Lowther, PhD is the Vice President of Research at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies. He has deep expertise in nuclear deterrence and the nuclear programs of Russia and China. He previously served as the Director of Strategic Deterrence Programs at the National Strategic Research Institute (NSRI)—serving US Strategic Command. Prior to joining NSRI, Dr. Lowther served as the director of the department of multi-domain operations (MDO) at the Army Management Staff College (AMSC) where he led efforts to develop MDO education programs in collaboration with an interdisciplinary faculty of engineers and scientists. Prior to this assignment, Dr. Lowther was a Professor of Political Science at the Army’s School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS) and taught 21st-century conflict to lieutenant colonels and colonels. Previously, he served as the founding director of the School of Advanced Nuclear Deterrence Studies (SANDS), Kirtland AFB. Dr. Lowther led the school’s academic, professional development, and research efforts. He also served as the director of the Center for Academic and Professional Journals at the Air Force Research Institute (AFRI), Maxwell AFB, where he oversaw publication of the Air Force’s professional journals: Strategic Studies Quarterly and Air and Space Power Journal (English, Spanish, Chinese, French). Prior to assuming this position, Dr. Lowther was a research professor at AFRI where he led and participated in studies directed by the Chief of Staff of the Air Force. He is the author or editor of many books and academic journal articles. Dr. Lowther has published in outlets like the New York Times, Boston Globe, Joint Force Quarterly, Strategic Studies Quarterly, and a variety of other places. Early in his career, Petty Officer Lowther served in the US Navy aboard the USS RAMAGE (DDG-61), at CINCUSNAVEUR–London, and with the Seabees (NMCB 17).

Curtis McGiffin is the Vice President for Education and Co-founder of the National Institute for Deterrence Studies. His areas of expertise are deterrence theory education, grand strategy, and strategic triad operations. He also serves on the teaching faculty of the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University, where he teaches graduate and doctorate courses in deterrence theory and grand strategy. Previously, he was the Associate Dean of the School of Strategic Force Studies at the Air Force Institute of Technology, where he led a robust portfolio of USAF professional continuing education programs supporting the AF nuclear enterprise. He also was the Executive Director of the Louisiana Tech Research Institute, where he designed and developed a catalog of Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications curriculum and courses for Air Force Global Strike Command’s workforce. Colonel McGiffin retired with over 26 years of experience in the USAF as an aviator, commander, staff officer, and educator, most of which was supporting the USAF’s nuclear enterprise. Prior to his retirement from active duty, Colonel McGiffin was the Associate Dean of Faculty and Assistant Professor of Strategy and Deterrence at the National War College in Washington DC. He has served on the Joint Staff, HQ AF staff, and combatant command staff, as a squadron commander, and as the senior advisor to Iraq’s military Vice Chief of Staff. He was a Master Navigator and flight instructor with 2,750 flight hours in the E-4B, EC-135, KC-135 and T-43 aircraft. He has been awarded the Defense Superior Service Medal, a Legion of Merit, and two Aerial Achievement Medals. Curtis received his MS in Strategic Intelligence from the Joint Military Intelligence College (now called the National Intelligence University) in Washington DC, and his MAS from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. He has also published several articles and a book chapter on deterrence education and deterrence application.

This speaker session supported SMA’s Strategic Deterrence Frameworks (SDF) project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the SDF project page.