China’s Three Roads to Controlling Taiwan

Speakers: Dr. Dan Blumenthal (AEI) & Frederick W. Kagan (AEI); Jack Gaines, Moderator (One CA Podcast)

Date: 27 September 2023

Speaker Session Summary

The increasing political and military tensions between China and Taiwan are frequently discussed in Western media. During these discussions, politicians and pundits point out Taiwan’s strategic importance to the US and China, including US and Chinese strategic options. Mr. Kagan and Mr. Blumenthal discuss these topics and more in their new article “China’s Three Roads to Controlling Taiwan.” Mr. Kagan emphasized that while influencing Taiwan’s future is an important objective for both the US and China, it is not the most important objective for either country in the Asia Pacific region. A more important short-term objective for China is weakening anti-Chinese coalitions and alliances in the region. Furthermore, Chinese president, Xi Jinping, believes that there is plenty of time for China to achieve its objective of reunifying all of what he deems China by the goal date, 2049.

President Xi also believes that China has many options available to achieve its long-term objective of controlling Taiwan. Mr. Blumenthal stated that China can achieve this goal through three interrelated campaigns: 1) forceful persuasion, 2) coercion, and 3) compellence. The presenters emphasized that China is more likely to achieve its goals through means short of a military invasion. Several coercive and persuasive activities include narrative control. An example of this narrative control includes convincing voters in Taiwan that a vote for the pro-US political party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), is a vote for war and further conflict with China. Also, China can affect Taiwan’s economy far before launching a conventional invasion. For example, the speakers mentioned that prior to an invasion of Taiwan, China is likely to escalate its activities targeting commercial companies doing business in Taiwan.

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Report: China’s Three Roads to Controlling Taiwan | American Enterprise Institute – AEI

This talk is also available on the One CA Podcast with Jack Gaines.

One CA podcast

Part I: https://www.civilaffairsassoc.org/podcast/episode/26b71f0f/151-dan-blumenthal-and-fred-kagan

Part II: https://www.civilaffairsassoc.org/podcast/episode/24800d52/152-dan-blumenthal-and-fred-kagan

Biographies:

Frederick W. Kagan is a senior fellow and the director of the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). In 2009, he served in Kabul, Afghanistan, as part of General Stanley McChrystal’s strategic assessment team, and he returned to Afghanistan in 2010, 2011, and 2012 to conduct research for Generals David Petraeus and John Allen. In July 2011, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen awarded him the Distinguished Public Service Award, the highest honor the Chairman can present to civilians who do not work for the Department of Defense, for his volunteer service in Afghanistan. He co-authored the report “Defining Success” in Afghanistan and was the author of “Choosing Victory,” a series of reports recommending and monitoring the US military surge in Iraq.

Dan Blumenthal is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, focusing on East Asian security issues and Sino-American relations. Mr. Blumenthal has served and advised the US government on China issues for over a decade. Before joining AEI, Mr. Blumenthal served as the US Department of Defense’s senior director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. He served as a commissioner on the congressionally mandated US-China Economic and Security Review Commission from 2006 to 2012 and vice chairman of the commission in 2007. He also served on the Academic Advisory Board of the congressional US-China Working Group.

Jack Gaines hosts the “One CA Podcast,” which brings guests to discuss defense, diplomacy, and development to promote U.S. foreign policy, and is the founder of 46x (46x.us), a social movement to promote advanced public affairs in DOD. Jack served in Europe, Africa, Iraq and Afghanistan in military and diplomatic roles and now consults throughout the D.C. area on foreign policy.