Statelet of Survivors: The Making of a Semi-Autonomous Region in Northeast Syria: US Options in the New Phase of the Syrian Conflict

Speaker: Dr. Amy Austin Holmes (George Washington University)

Date: 28 August 2024

Speaker Session Summary

The political overtures made by Turkish President Erdogan to normalize relations with the Assad regime are reshaping the dynamics of the Syrian civil war. These overtures have more closely aligned Turkish, Russian, and Iranian interests in the region. As evidence, Turkish and Russian forces are conducting joint patrols to identify Kurdish outposts in the “Operation Peace Spring” area in Northern Syria. This operation marks Türkiye’s third military engagement in Syria. Türkiye has recently targeted civilian infrastructure in Northeast Syria amidst its operations, including schools, oil fields, hospitals, and other vital social infrastructure. The latest Turkish attacks in Northern Syria are primarily focused on the People’s Defense Unit (YPG), a key component of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which serves as the main U.S. ally against ISIS in Syria. 

Dr. Holmes emphasized that understanding Turkish geopolitical interests requires a comprehension of its domestic politics and the historical roots of its conflict with the Kurds. The Turkish-Kurd conflict spans decades, with its origins tracing back centuries to the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the Armenian Genocide. Dr. Holmes recommended the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) global database as a valuable resource for data to better understand the civil conflict in Syria. She discussed a survey she conducted over a period of seven years following the YPG’s initial victories over ISIS, which was completely defeated in 2019. During this survey, she interviewed 400 members of the SDF, alongside local men and women, and officials from the Democratic Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (AANES), which governs the SDF-controlled territory. 

The SDF is a multicultural and multiethnic group, much like the region it controls. Dr. Holmes noted that her survey of SDF fighters included individuals from 46 different tribal backgrounds, including Arab tribes that the Assad regime had previously used to suppress the Kurds. Although AANES has fought periodically against the Assad regime, Dr. Holmes’ survey also revealed that 96% of respondents wish to remain part of a united Syria. She highlighted that the recent shift in Russian focus toward Ukraine presents an opportunity for the United States and its allies to refocus on Syria, restart inter-Kurdish dialogue, and guard against any resurgence of ISIS in the country. 

You can download the first chapter of Dr. Holmes’ book Statelet of Survivors here.

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Biography: Dr. Amy Austin Holmes is Research Professor of International Affairs at George Washington University and is also on the faculty at the Bush School of Government and Public Service. Dr. Holmes has published on the global American military posture, the NATO alliance, non-state actors, revolutions, military coups, and de-facto states. Dr. Holmes earned her Ph.D. from Johns Hopkins University, and has held positions at the American University in Cairo and at Harvard University’s Belfer Center. She also served at the U.S. State Department through a Council on Foreign Relations fellowship and as Acting Director of the Foreign Area Officer (FAO) Program at GW.  Dr. Holmes is the author of three books, including Statelet of Survivors: The Making of a Semi-Autonomous Region in Northeast Syria (Oxford University Press 2024), Coups and Revolutions: Mass Mobilization, the Egyptian Military, and the United States from Mubarak to Sisi (OUP) and Social Unrest and American Military Bases in Turkey and Germany since 1945 (CUP).