Speaker: Lt Col Oriana Skylar Mastro, PhD (Stanford University; Deputy Director of Reserve Global China Strategy)
Date: 28 May 2025
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Lt Col Oriana Skylar Mastro, PhD (Stanford University; Deputy Director of Reserve Global China Strategy) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
Western scholars and policymakers, particularly in the United States, find the prospect of a China–Russia military bloc increasingly concerning. However, despite these concerns, there is no unified consensus among Western leaders that the current Sino-Russian partnership constitutes a direct threat. In her presentation on the China–Russia Military Relationship Project, Dr. Mastro proposed a new empirical framework for evaluating the purpose and nature of Sino-Russian strategic cooperation. This framework assesses the degree, scope, and impact of the two nations’ security collaboration and incorporates Chinese and Russian sources to analyze how each country would perceive the partnership in various warfighting scenarios.
Dr. Mastro identified several key drivers of Sino-Russian security cooperation, including a shared perception of territorial threats, mutual opposition to the United States, and a common ideological foundation rooted in their shared communist ideology during the Cold War. She emphasized that although both nations believe their security is enhanced through collaboration, they are not actively preparing to wage a major war against the United States together. Possible decoupling factors include unmet expectations and divergent approaches to managing relations with the United States, which often create friction.
Dr. Mastro also highlighted how historical asymmetries in power have led to dealignment between the two nations, such as China’s perception during the Cold War that Russia sought to exploit its strength by establishing military bases in Chinese territory. This perception contributed to a decline in military cooperation between 1969 and 2001. A renewed military alignment began in 2016, largely aimed at enabling China to challenge US influence and presence in Asia. Dr. Mastro noted that 60% of observed military activities since then reflect unilateral Russian support for Chinese strategic goals in Asia.
Looking forward, she hypothesized that Sino-Russian cooperation will likely continue to deepen, particularly in terms of technology sharing and enhancing access to each other’s communication infrastructure (e.g., radio networks). Dr. Mastro recommended treating China and Russia as a unified bloc in foreign policy responses, such as implementing joint punitive measures, in an effort to diminish the benefits the two nations enjoy from their strategic cooperation.
To read more of Dr. Mastro’s research on Sino-Russian security cooperation, please view her latest article, entitled “Sino-Russian Military Alignment and Its Implications for Global Security.”
Speaker Session Recording
This video will be posted to Intelink as soon as possible.
Briefing Materials
Biography: Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Courtesy Assistant Professor of Political Science at Stanford University where her research focuses on Chinese military and security policy, Asia-Pacific security issues, war termination, and coercive diplomacy. She is also a Non-Resident Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. She continues to serve as a Lieutenant Colonel in the United States Air Force Reserve for which she currently works at the Pentagon as Deputy Director of Reserve China Global Strategy. For her contributions to U.S. strategy in Asia, she won the Individual Reservist of the Year Award in 2016 (CGO) and 2022 (FGO). She has published widely, including in International Security, Security Studies, Foreign Affairs, Journal of Strategic Studies, The Washington Quarterly, the Economist and the New York Times. Her most recent book, Upstart: How China Became a Great Power (Oxford University Press, 2024), evaluates China’s approach to competition. Her book, The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime, (Cornell University Press, 2019), won the 2020 American Political Science Association International Security Section Best Book by an Untenured Faculty Member. She holds a B.A. in East Asian Studies from Stanford University and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Politics from Princeton University. Her publications and other commentary can be found at www.orianaskylarmastro.com and on twitter @osmastro.
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