Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations

Speakers: Dr. Todd Helmus & Dr. Krista Romita Grocholski (RAND)

Date: 30 January 2025

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Todd Helmus (RAND) and Dr. Krista Romita Grocholski (RAND) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.    

China is seeking to assert control over and advance its interests in large portions of Southeast Asia and the South China Sea (SCS). It employs various methods to achieve this, including illegal fishing activities, obstructing Philippine resupply efforts, and conducting flybys of US aircraft. These actions fall under the category of gray zone activities—coercive tactics that remain below the threshold of armed conflict. However, Dr. Helmus emphasized that China does not perceive its actions as gray zone activities but rather as part of a continuum of conflict. He noted that China’s objectives extend beyond resource acquisition; they also aim to deny adversaries access to these resources. To achieve its goals, China frequently operates across multiple domains, including cyber, information warfare, and, at times, physical force. 

Despite employing tactics such as ramming and assaulting Philippine vessels, China appears intent on avoiding outright military conflict with the United States and its regional allies. Dr. Helmus and Dr. Romita Grocholski outlined several strategies the United States and its allies and partners could adopt to counter China’s attempts to secure control over SCS maritime areas. These include increasing presence operations, such as Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS); implementing transparency initiatives, such as official press releases exposing malign Chinese actions; strengthening US allies and partners, particularly the Philippine Coast Guard, to directly counter Chinese gray zone tactics; and utilizing non-lethal deterrents, such as laser dazzlers and microwave beams. However, they also mentioned that the United States faces challenges in responding to these threats due to a lack of political will and limited resources. 

For a more in-depth analysis of how the United States and its allies can deter or counter China’s malign activities in the gray zone, refer to Dr. Helmus’s and Dr. Romita Grocholski’s articles, entitled “How the United States Can Support Allied and Partner Efforts to Counter China in the Gray Zone” and “Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations.” 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Also forthcoming!