The Future of Global Competition & Conflict Comparative Analysis: A Media Ecology & Strategic Analysis (MESA) Group Report

The Future of Global Competition & Conflict Comparative Analysis: A Media Ecology & Strategic Analysis (MESA) Group Report

Authors | Editors: Cooley, S. (Oklahoma State University); Hinck, R. (Monmouth College); Kitsch, S. (Monmouth College); Cooley, A. (Oklahoma State University)

Executive Summary

This report provides a comparative analysis of Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan media narratives regarding visions of the future of global competition, including their instruments of exerting power (DIME), purported vulnerabilities and necessary capabilities, projected allies and adversaries, views on the future of global order (FGO), the US, and EU, as well as the available means by which global competition should be managed. Statistical modeling on these media narratives revealed concerns for informational and cultural vulnerabilities and demonstrated the importance of maximizing economic and diplomatic capabilities. China was the only nation to view the FGO positively, largely due to its projection of itself as a rising power within the global order with the economic and technological ability to succeed in future global competition. All of the nations shared in having an exceptionally negative perspective on the US and its role within the global order.

Implications on US security

• Potential Challenges to the US
  • US competitors express rising insecurity within the international system threatening greater destabilization of the international order. Future conflict may increase if nations view the order as increasingly unstable, or unable to provide benefits for their participation, resulting in those nations turning more to militarization.
  • While US pressure appears to be weakening Russian and Iranian abilities to compete in a future conflict, the US must ensure it maintains the diplomatic support of its allies.
  • Russia appears committed to developing alternative diplomatic and economic partnerships with Eurasia and China. To maintain US advantage over Russian strength, the US should consider developing policies mitigating Russian-Chinese diplomatic and economic partnerships.
  • Views of the US as in decline threatens to inhibit future US influence. The US should consider developing a strategy highlighting its diplomatic and global leadership potential, especially in areas such as technological innovation, showcasing its ability to drive future global economic growth.

• Potential Openings for the US
  • US competitors appear vulnerable to US leadership regarding multilateral economic and diplomatic partnerships. US ability to maintain multilateral diplomatic and economic partnerships, especially with Western European countries, can be a force multiplier when dealing with Iran, China, and Venezuela.
  • US offering of economic pacts and technology sharing could be powerful inducements for Chinese and Venezuelan cooperation. Invitations to diplomatic and economic cooperation can lessen the chances for conflict and attract partnerships if managed strategically; nations need to be able to see themselves as benefiting from the global order, especially in areas of economic growth.
  • Chinese interests appear amenable to US interests economically and in multilateral institutions. US-China cooperation on economic and diplomatic issues can help support US influence and stabilize international order.
  • The US media and information dominance is a significant advantage and a concern for Russia and Iran specifically. Cultural encroachment as well as the ability for the
• US to set the parameters of, and narratives on, international events among allies using media are weapons of global competition that are acknowledged vulnerabilities by Russia and Iran.

Visions on the Future of Global Competition

• Chinese narratives present the future of global competition as an economic battle centered on free trade and technological development. China views rising nationalism and isolationist policies in Europe and the US as undermining global stability and presents itself as a global leader supporting international institutions such as the UN and WTO. Successful competition requires promotion of diplomatic ties, domestic technological innovation, and continued reforms. China remains optimistic in its ability to lead the world and manage a peaceful global order.
• Russian narratives present the future of global competition as one whereby Russia is in conflict with the Western-led global order. Chief Russian concerns include its perceived domestic economic and technological declines, requiring Russia to develop greater Eurasian economic ties, especially with China; and Western information warfare causing societal disruptions and an unraveling of Russian national identity, requiring Russia to reinvest in the promotion and protection of culture across key industries. Russia is seen as maintaining its great power status and aspiring to be the main guarantor of security in a new global order; challenging US and EU backed institutions and establishing alternative multilateral partnerships to diminish US influence.
• Iranian narratives present the future of global competition through a regional lens whereby diplomatic and informational instruments of power are key for its ability to lead the Shia Crescent and combat the US attempts to isolate it. Iran is shown as under siege from an onslaught of US rhetoric and US leveraging of the international community against it and argues that US actions are in violation of international law and norms. The US is seen as aiming to divide the Shia Crescent, and Iran blames the US for its own internal weaknesses as well as for aiding in the militarization of the Middle East. To succeed in the future global order, Iran calls for greater regional unity within the Shia Crescent and greater diplomatic influence with the EU to balance against the US.
• Venezuelan narratives present the future of global competition in ideological terms where imperialist nations of all sorts, including the US, China, and Russia, compete for their own economic and political influence globally. Latin America, and Venezuela specifically, are seen as suffering the consequences of this competition, as the power brokers of the global order care little about the impacts of competition on the well-being of other nations. Venezuela sees itself as vulnerable to the outside military, diplomatic, and economic influences, especially due to its domestic turmoil and failed economic policies. Authoritarian politics, and corruption, are viewed negatively and seen as undermining humanitarian needs. Venezuela sees itself as lacking capabilities to influence foreign nations and calls for new directions in engagements with the diplomatic community and through regional economic trade relations.

Statistical Models of Media Perspectives

• Positive Drivers of the FGO: Iranian, Russian, Chinese, and Venezuelan media present the future of the global order more positively as expressions of their diplomatic and economic capabilities increase, and as mentions of diplomatic vulnerabilities and foreign competitors decrease. Media discussions of integration and alliance with other nations within the global economic system are keys to favorable projections of what the future holds for the international system. Demonstrating diplomatic voice within the global order and competency within the global economy lend themselves toward more optimistic presentations of the future.
• Positive Drivers on Nation’s Role in the Global Order: Iranian, Russian, Chinese, and Venezuelan media project a positive perspective of their nation’s role within the global order as mentions of informational vulnerabilities and articulations of necessary military capabilities increase.
  • Both Russian and Iranian media discuss informational vulnerabilities within broader conversations of shoring up and maintaining cultural homogeneity related to specific regional areas of influence (FSU countries, Shia Crescent); discussions of military capabilities are framed as in defense of sovereign territory and areas of influence. For both Iran and Russia, a critical part of national identity expressed in media narratives relates to regional solidarity; one of the most dangerous aspects of Western influence is seen as its ability to wage information and cultural warfare using media.
  • Chinese media present a more favorable perspective on their role within the global order as discussions on diplomatic capabilities increase, and mentions of foreign competitors decrease. For Chinese media, the role of their nation in the global order is as an emerging superpower committed to global economic fairness and equality, and demonstrating its leadership through the expression of its diplomatic prowess and lack of direct competitors.

• Negative Drivers towards the US: Iranian, Russian, Chinese, and Venezuelan media all present the US negatively. This is largely because the US is presented as an instigator of tension & conflict, a waning imperialist power, and/or a direct competitor in sectors deemed important to the nation. The perceptions of the US become more positive only as media discussions of competitors and conflict management decrease. The ability of the US to project information warfare via media is a significant concern for all of the nations; important to this concern is the underlying discussion of the US as a lawbreaker and often unfair actor in respect to the global order.
  • Critical to Russian and Chinese media perspectives of the US are informational capabilities and vulnerabilities. Russian perspectives of the US become more negative as mentions of their own information capabilities and vulnerabilities are discussed. Chinese perspectives of the US become more positive as discussions of their own informational capabilities increase, and mentions of information vulnerabilities decrease.

• Positive Drivers towards Western Europe: Iranian, Russian, Chinese, and Venezuelan media perspectives on Western Europe became more positive when discussing alliances and when foreign sources were present within news stories. The importance of Western Europe overall within these presentations of the global order is twofold: First, Western Europe as a conceptual block of nations is seen as a traditional ally of the US. Diminishing the purported strength of that alliance, showing Western Europe as seeking new alliances outside of the US, and demonstrating points of common concern between other nations and Western Europe highlights the waywardness of the US in relation to the global order. Second, Western Europe is presented as generally committed to open market principles, diplomacy, and fairness. Thus, presenting the shifting alliances of Western Europe helps to cast legitimacy on the grievances and international leadership of other international actors like Russia, China, and Iran.
  • Chinese media’s presentation of Western Europe was more influenced by mentions of diplomatic, informational, and economic vulnerabilities; as Chinese vulnerabilities were discussed less, presentation of Western Europe became more positive.
  • In Iranian media, as discussions of conflict management increased and mentions of competitors decreased perspectives on Western Europe were more positive.

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