The Geopolitical Second Wave

July 2020 No Comments

Speaker: McTague, T. (The Atlantic)

Date: 14 July 2020

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Tom McTague (The Atlantic) as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series. Mr. McTague’s presentation expanded on his article in The Atlantic, published in May 2020, entitled “The Pandemic’s Geopolitical Aftershocks Are Coming.” In the article, Mr. McTague suggests that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will be much farther reaching than many assume and posits a series of second and third order geopolitical effects that may arise. During his brief, Mr. McTague emphasized that the 2008 financial crisis and its aftershocks confirmed global trends that had been projected before (e.g., China emerging as a pillar of the global economy). Using this same principle, he emphasized that the aftershocks of this 2020 global pandemic will also likely predict global trends. Mr. McTague argued that 2020 has primarily reaffirmed the European league’s table of power: Germany is growing stronger, as shown by its response to COVID-19, particularly when compared to France and Britain, and the gap between northern and southern Europe is growing larger as countries like Italy and Spain continue to struggle. On a global scale, comparatively, the wealth of the West is declining while the wealth of the East is increasing, which poses a marked difference from the 20th century. Mr. McTague also discussed some of the biggest questions that COVID-19 created. Regarding Brexit, he weighed the pros and cons of this event, which resulted in the largest recession in recent UK history, ultimately arriving at the argument that the British government should not do anything to make the recession worse. However, he also considered the merit of the opportunity that is being presented to the UK make an economic break while it is already in a recession, as well as a moment for the UK to learn how to deal with similar economic difficulties. Next, Mr. McTague examined the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on the US presidential election in November and what either of the candidates being hospitalized (and therefore unable to campaign or govern) would lead to. He also stated that the trajectory of emerging world powers like Indonesia or India could be fatally changed if those countries do not respond well to the pandemic, potentially altering their upward mobility. Finally, Mr. McTague asserted that China is overwhelmingly producing the most geopolitical uncertainty at the time as the rest of the world realigns to respond to its decisions and/or counterbalance its power (in Britain’s case, by extending citizenship to people living in Hong Kong as the Chinese government extends more control, as well as banning Huawei). Mr. McTague concluded by rooting his assertions in history. He stated that the “golden period” of the 90s and 00s is now disappearing. The assumption during this time that the global stage of the world was certain and liberal democracy would prevail was flawed. Decisions that states make shape their own ability to fail or succeed, and the pandemic is speeding up and confirming global trends we have predicted, Mr. McTague contended.

Speaker Session Recording

To access a recording of the session, please email Ms. Nicole Omundson (nomundson@nsiteam.com).

Biography

Tom McTague is a London-based staff writer at The Atlantic, and co-author of Betting the House: The Inside Story of the 2017 Election.