The Singapore Summit and Understanding North Korea’s Calculus

The Singapore Summit and Understanding North Korea’s Calculus

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ken Gause (CNA International Affairs Group) as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series. 

Date: 14 June 2018

Speaker Session Preview

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ken Gause (CNA International Affairs Group) as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series. Gause first stated that we need a framework to assess North Korea’s calculus, determine why Kim Jong-un came to the summit, and evaluate how he plans to proceed. He explained that the Korea-watching community is stuck in a narrative about North Korea, making several assumptions, which are not necessarily true. He then discussed the framework that he and his CNA colleagues developed, which incorporates leadership, cultural, decision-making, pressure point, and impact analyses. Gause also stated that we should assume that Kim Jong-un is a rational actor and emphasized that two goals drive all of his decision-making: regime survival and the perpetuation of Kim family rule. He then presented rational explanations for why Kim Jong-un’s decisions, given these critical “centers of gravity.” Gause concluded the session by suggesting that the Korea-watching community’s assumptions should be reexamined in light of the recent Singapore summit.

This speaker session supported SMA’s Korea Strategic Outcomes project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the Korea Strategic Outcomes project page.

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Biography

Ken Gause is the director of the CNA Corporation’s International Affairs Group. His area of particular focus is the leaderships of hard target countries. Mr. Gause’s work on foreign leaderships dates back to the early 1980s with his work on the Soviet Union. He has published numerous articles on the North Korean leadership for such publications as Korean Journal for Defense Analysis, International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, and Jane’s Intelligence Review, and is the author of three recently published books entitled North Korean House of Cards: Leadership Dynamics Under Kim Jong-un; Coercion, Control, Surveillance, and Punishment: An Examination of the North Korean Police State; and North Korea Under Kim Chong-il: Policy, Politics, and Prospects for Change.