West Africa Exploitable Conditions Model

Author: Dr. Samuel Henkin (NSI, Inc.)

This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) Phase III.“ For more information regarding this project, please click here.

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The West Africa Exploitable Conditions Model (WAECM) is an empirical, concept-based, system-of systems model tailored to the region of West Africa, as defined by USAFRICOM’s interactive AOR map (https://www.africom.mil/military-presence). Developed from the AFRICOM Exploitable Conditions Model (AECM), it identifies various variables or factors (nodes) and their linkages through direct connections to one another (edges), representing the complex conditions and dynamics of the OE in West Africa.

While the AECM is broadly applicable to the countries comprising West Africa, the WAECM incorporates regional model tailoring to account for specific West African conditions and regional dynamics—including key characteristics, attributes, and/or contexts—ensuring relevance and responsiveness to regional complexities.

The WAECM, consisting of 157 nodes and 1,067 edges, offers a systems view of the complex, interrelated conditions in the region, encompassing economics; energy; environment and climate change; technology, communication, and information; military and security; societal conditions; and governance factors.

As a thinking tool, the WAECM aims to improve a user’s ability to identify and understand critical conditions and dynamics of complex systems in West Africa; anticipate their impacts and effects; and, ultimately, devise ways to address them to produce desired outcomes. During the model development process, the research team also explored select critical conditions relevant to the political stability of West Africa, the initial findings of which are presented in the story map featured in Part II.

This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) Phase III.“ For more information regarding this project, please click here.