AFRICOM Exploitable Conditions Model (AECM) Network Analysis Report

Author: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.)

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The physical, social, political, economic, and cultural systems that comprise the operational environment
interact in complex ways. The Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Anticipating the Future Operational
Environment (AFOE) project models this complexity with special relevance to US national security
concerns. The AFOE team constructed a generic Global Exploitable Conditions Model (GECM) that
captured this complexity as a system of nodes (or variables) and edges, which are the relationships
between nodes. The generic model was then tailored to the specifics of the USAFRICOM AOR as the
African Exploitable Conditions Model (AECM). This report describes a network analysis of the AECM that
provides insight into important conditions and dynamics that impact USAFRICOM’s mission objectives.

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