A “Colder War” Future in the USCENTCOM AOR? Realpolitik Trajectory of Major Powers and Regional Players

Authors | Editors: Jiang, M. (Creighton University); Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University)

Report Abstract and Methodology

This paper addresses potential security concerns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the next 5-25 years if a strong Chinese-Russian alliance develops. It also offers the U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) possible approaches to pre-empt both the formation of a China-Russia Axis and subsequent emergence of a Middle East and North Africa (MENA) periphery.

Methodologically, currently available data do not admit of any mechanical prediction in forecasting for years, much less decades, ahead. Instead, borrowing from cosmologist Robert Spitzer, possible outcomes are based upon carefully aggregated and synthesized evidence. This evidence is reasonable and responsible. It creates a network of informal inference possessing strong probative value deriving from consideration of multiple, converging, independently probable data-sets. In such analysis, any single data-set may change, or indeed be proven incorrect, without necessarily disproving the whole.

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