Hunting Gray Rhinos and Black Swans: Statistical and Machine Learning Models of Political Stability and Terrorism

Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Day, J. (NSI, Inc.); Kuznar, E. (NSI, Inc.)

Executive Summary

Strategic surprise, the realization that one’s knowledge and assumptions are wrong and the adversary has an upper hand, is a national security nightmare (Amidon, 2005; Defense Science Board, 2015; Handel, 1984). Classic examples include Pearl Harbor, Sputnik, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the September 11, 2001 terror attacks. This report addresses two types of surprises, Black Swans and Gray Rhinos. Black Swans are surprising, high- impact events produced by complex systems of non-linear interactions that are inherently unpredictable. In contrast, Gray Rhinos are surprising events whose indicators exist and should have been obvious but were missed because we were not looking or properly assessing them. This report presents statistical models that identify the drivers of Gray Rhino events and provide insight into Black Swan events in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR). Political instability and terrorism are the two types of events modeled.

Political Stability

• Corruption is the primary factor that undermines the political stability of USCENTCOM AOR countries. US government (USG) efforts to monitor corruption are, therefore, critical for providing indicators and warnings (I&W) of instability; US influence has the potential to decrease corruption.
• Insecurity in basic needs are an important source of instability in the USCENTCOM AOR. Water resources are finite and dwindling in the region and both water availability and hunger are associated with political instability. Food and water availability and food prices provide indicators of approaching instabilities that could threaten US interests in the region. Severe droughts or rapid fluctuations in the world food market have the potential to create Black Swan-like spikes in political instability. Such a spike, for example, contributed to the onset of the Syrian civil war.
• The models reveal that competition among elites in USCENTCOM AOR countries is a risk factor for instability. Elites who feel that the established political system is not serving their aspirations are the most likely source of disruption. Despite popular protests, rank-and-file populations do not have the means to mount an effective challenge to their governments. However, elites can use grievances, such as lack of basic needs, to mobilize the masses when convenient. USG efforts to influence elites, therefore, may be particularly effective in preventing social instability.
• Rugged terrain is associated with political instability, and many of the countries in the USCENTCOM AOR have such terrain.

Terrorism

• By far the leading factor in associated with terrorism in the USCENTCOM AOR is physically abusive state terror. Highly autocratic regimes are able to suppress terrorism in their own countries; however, if they use physically abusive means, they may be spawning terrorism abroad because such means are associated with terrorism.
• Corruption is strongly associated with terrorism in the USCENTCOM AOR. USG efforts to counteract corruption should, therefore, help to limit terrorism in the region.
• As USCENTCOM AOR countries democratize, terrorists are better able to operate. Democracy is associated with increased political stability in the region but may paradoxically increase terrorism.
• In the USCENTCOM AOR, the combination of a young population and high unemployment is associated with terrorism. Efforts to boost employment should help alleviate terrorism.
• The presence of war resulting in high battle deaths in the population is strongly associated with terrorism. US efforts to prevent war in the region should help to counter terrorism.

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