Back to the Future: Trajectories, Simulations and Alternative Futures of Great Power Competition

Speaker: Dr. Mark Abdollahian (Claremont Graduate University; Acertas)

Date: 12 July 2023

Speaker Session Summary

The US and China have been locked in a great power competition (GPC) that will decide who has more political influence among both developing and developed countries. This GPC was predicted by experts as early as 2000 as China’s eventual parity with US purchasing power became evident. Dr. Abdollahian pointed out that the year China reached this parity with the US (2015) was accurately predicted in the early 2000s. He also addressed concerns regarding the escalation of great power conflict between the US and China. This concern is justified because a certain amount of conflict when states trade global leadership is likely; however, it is not guaranteed. When states—like the US and China—are intrinsically linked economically and are mostly satisfied with how valuable resources are shared, then the existence of a state-level conflict is very unlikely. Also, US allies can assist in either bringing China into the global order as an economic and politically collaborative state or resisting its rise to global dominance. Currently, most Western US allies are choosing to hedge between the US and China, playing both sides to their own benefit.

It is highly unlikely that the US will remain a global hegemon for much longer. Dr. Abdollahian commented that in all the scenarios run, only 5% ended with the US maintaining its hegemonic status. Instead, the most likely trajectory of the current GPC is mutual prosperity for both the US and China, which was the outcome of 30% of scenarios. Dr. Abdollahian also identified the likely hood of Chinese hegemony (30%) and the complete dissolution of global order (25%). He also pointed out that India will likely experience its own rise to power in the coming decades, potentially even surpassing China. However, India will have to escape its current poverty trap to do so. India’s and China’s rise has being driven by similar factors that propelled the United States’ own historical rise; including factors like being a large population and a possessing a fast-rising industrial base focused on exporting manufactured goods. Unfortunately, the US will not likely see similar economic growth in its own markets because is the US is already a modern, developed economy while China and India are not. 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing materials

Biography: Dr. Mark Abdollahian is Professor of Computational Analytics, Claremont Graduate University and Chief Executive Officer of Acertas. He focuses on designing and delivering augmented decision intelligence with big data, AI and predictive analytics. Dr. Abdollahian’s global experience spans national policy, economic development and corporate strategy employed by the US Government, including the Department of Defense, DARPA and the Department of State as well as foreign governments, the World Bank, UN and the African Union. For over 25 years, he has advanced the frontier of data driven decision making, quantitative computational social science and strategy. Dr. Abdollahian is author of dozens of scientific articles and two books across politics, economics, business and technology. He is a cofounder of Sentia Group, Senturion Forecasting, Acertas, a Board Member for the Tällberg Foundation and Full Professor in the Department of Politics and Economics, Claremont Graduate University. In addition to Bachelor’s degrees in Political Science, History and French from Case Western Reserve University, Dr. Abdollahian holds a MA in Foreign and Defense Policy and a PhD in Political Economy and Mathematical Modeling from Claremont Graduate University.