Why, What, and How Free Societies Must Develop Effective Deterrence of Actors Intending Bad Ends Given Our GenAI Era

Speaker: Dr. David Bray (Stimson Center; LeadDoAdapt Ventures)

Date: 13 March 2024

Speaker Session Summary

The advent of widespread internet access and the emergence of new forms of generative AI (GenAI) have broken down the physical boundaries that once separated international and intranational communities. Dr. Bray delineates three overarching trends that delineate the interplay between internet penetration, GenAI, and their profound impact on society and national security. He underscores the omnipresence of AI in contemporary society, tracing its roots back to the 1950s and highlighting its reliance on deep learning methodologies, which necessitate vast amounts of data for optimal functioning. However, the sheer volume of data required for effective AI training presents a formidable challenge, both in terms of accessibility and energy consumption. Dr. Bray proposes leveraging active inference in AI training to enhance predictive capabilities and energy efficiency. 

Dr. Bray also observes a convergence of data proliferation and globalization, positing that the hoarding of data by companies and governments worldwide poses a significant threat to free speech and fosters distrust among individuals, corporations, and governmental entities. The escalating frequency, sophistication, and cost of ransomware and cyber threats pose a pressing concern for corporations and governments. Dr. Bray highlights the exponential growth of network devices, surpassing the global population in 2014 and now significantly outnumbering human users. As the attack surface expands, so do the costs of ransomware attacks, doubling annually. To effectively deter adversarial actors in the cyber domain, Dr. Bray advocates focusing on the human operators behind AI, given that AI lacks the capacity for rational decision-making akin to human users. He underscores the United States’ current shortcomings in cybersecurity and advocates for enhancing public awareness and education to mitigate risks effectively. Additionally, he warns of the susceptibility of GenAI to exploitation by authoritarian regimes and states divergent from Western democratic values, owing to their controlled and closed information environments. 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

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Biography: Dr. David A. Bray is both a Distinguished Fellow and co-chair of the Alfred Lee Loomis Innovation Council at the non-partisan Henry L. Stimson Center. He is also a non-resident Distinguished Fellow with the Business Executives for National Security, and a CEO and transformation leader for different “under the radar” tech and data ventures seeking to get started in novel situations. He is Principal at LeadDoAdapt Ventures and has served in a variety of leadership roles in turbulent environments, including bioterrorism preparedness and response from 2000-2005. Dr. Bray previously was the Executive Director for a bipartisan National Commission on R&D, provided non-partisan leadership as a federal agency Senior Executive, worked with the U.S. Navy and Marines on improving organizational adaptability, and aided U.S. Special Operation Command’s J5 Directorate on the challenges of countering disinformation online. He has received both the Joint Civilian Service Commendation Award and the National Intelligence Exceptional Achievement Medal. David accepted a leadership role in December 2019 to direct the successful bipartisan Commission on the Geopolitical Impacts of New Technologies and Data that included Senator Mark Warner, Senator Rob Portman, Rep. Suzan DelBene, and Rep. Michael McCaul. From 2017 to the start of 2020, David also served as Executive Director for the People-Centered Internet coalition Chaired by Internet co-originator Vint Cerf and was named a Senior Fellow with the Institute for Human-Machine Cognition starting in 2018. Business Insider named him one of the top “24 Americans Who Are Changing the World” under 40 and he was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. For twelve different startups, he has served as President, CEO, Chief Strategy Officer, and Strategic Advisor roles.