Caveat Emptor: The Pros and Cons of Strategic Culture as an Analytical Concept

Speaker: Dr. Alastair Johnston (Harvard University)

Date: 12 April 2023

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Alastair Iain Johnston (Harvard University) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.

Dr. Johnston described the four main generations of strategic culture research. During the first generation (1970s) a baseline was created for how scientists viewed the intersection of how political thought and the use of force influences governments’ strategic choices. The second generation (1980s) led to an overall orientation to use violence to punish one’s adversaries. The third generation (1990s) focused on the presumption that countries’ militaries will act efficaciously in inter-state conflicts. Researchers also discovered a linkage between language and strategic culture during this generation. The final generation (2000s-present) focuses more on how a collective identity can define threats, military roles, and how it applies to all actors. He emphasized that research relating to strategic culture has a central paradigm that relies on three questions. These questions are: a) what is the frequency of conflict, b) are the disputes zero-sum in nature, and c) what is the efficacy of violence in conflicts? By examining metaphors, analogies, and consistent or missing cause and effect statements, researchers can decipher the strategic culture in an organization or government.

While these artifacts can predict whether a government is more militaristic, they do not always perfectly predict an actor’s behavior or groups’ decisions. Different variables that can change these outcomes include leadership personalities and adversaries’ actions, among others. Dr. Johnston also emphasized that there is an overlap and a blurring at the margins of these strategic cultures. There are also benefits and negative side effects to studying strategic culture as an academic discipline. Several benefits are checking for mirror imaging and increasing self-awareness for understanding how one’s own strategic culture affects how they answer several central paradigm questions. Possible negative side effects include the risk of reinforcing stereotypes of entire groups or organizations. For example, a common stereotype of America by China is that it is hegemonic, while a common stereotype of China by the US is that China excels at long-term thinking and deception. There are ways to reduce negative side effects related to studying strategic culture, including simply being aware that there are likely multiple strategic cultures at work in any given society. 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Briefing Materials

Biography:

Alastair Iain Johnston (PhD 1993) is the Laine Professor of China in World Affairs in the Government Department at Harvard University. He is the author of Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand Strategy in Chinese History. (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995) and Social States: China in International Institutions, 1980-2000 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008), as well as articles on identity and foreign policy, strategic culture, and Chinese arms control and crisis management theory and practice. Johnston has consulted for the US National Academy of Sciences’ Committee on International Security and Arms Control, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. His academic CV can be found here: https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/aijohnston/files/cv_2022.pdf.

This speaker session supported SMA’s Strategic Deterrence Frameworks (SDF) project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the SDF project page.