COVID, Global Power, War, and US Restraint: A Conversation with Barry Posen
Speaker: Posen, B. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT))
Date: 28 October 2020
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series, featuring Dr. Barry Posen (Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)).
Dr. Posen began the conversation by discussing grand strategy. He argued that whether states know it or not, they must make their way through in a world without a sovereign, where any state can do whatever it would like to another state. Therefore, a state needs to develop a strategy that helps it look after itself in the international community. This compilation of plans and policies is known as a grand strategy. It is a system of interconnected political, military, and economic means to address changes and threats. Dr. Posen argued that US grand strategy, including its determination to involve itself in many international conflicts globally, has ultimately failed. The US, according to Dr. Posen, should focus on its enduring interest in offshore powers and preserving the division of Eurasia, where the biggest threat to hegemony is China. Additionally, the US should pay more attention to nuclear proliferation. A system of arms control and cooperation to ensure that states practice good nuclear hygiene is critical. Finally, the US should concentrate more on global terrorism and how to manage it defensively, Dr. Posen argued.
Dr. Posen then discussed the implications of COVID-19, and in particular, how it has accelerated trends across the globe that were already underway. The more advanced economies throughout the world—more specifically, China—will suffer slightly more from the economic effects of COVID-19 than the rising economies, Dr. Posen stated. However, the economies that will suffer the most are those which are the most poor and underdeveloped. Because of this, there is a possibility that COVID-19 may increase the likelihood of insurgencies and civil wars. More generally, Dr. Posen argued that COVID-19 will likely affect internal conflicts globally. To conclude, Dr. Posen spoke about the potential for external conflicts to break out as a result of COVID as well. Because Chinese citizens are suffering less economically than most other states at this time, there remains a possibility that China will become more optimistic and assertive with its view of its role both geopolitically and internationally.
Speaker Session Recording
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