Speakers: Katherine Kuzminski (CNAS) & Taren Sylvester
Date: 5 March 2025
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Katherine Kuzminski (CNAS) and Taren Sylvester (CNAS) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
The US all-volunteer force (AVF) may prove insufficient in the event of a conflict with China, potentially requiring the United States to reinstate the draft for the first time in over 50 years. In this scenario, the government would need to mobilize its available military-age male population quickly. The speakers acknowledged that enacting a draft would be a political decision, placing a significant burden on both the President and Congress. Additionally, they recognized the challenges of implementing a draft, emphasizing that only 23% of draftees would meet the physical and processing requirements at the Military Entrance Processing Station (MEPS).
A draft would become necessary in a US-China war due to high casualty rates. The speakers stressed that a conscripted force would not be responsible for fighting the initial years of a war, winning the final battle, or fulfilling peacetime military needs. Instead, the professional military would fight in the initial phase, while conscripted forces would be deployed later where massive amounts of soldiers are needed. The speakers also clarified that a draft would not serve as a tool to bridge the civil-military gap in society.
If the government were to implement a draft, the necessary infrastructure must already be in place. To illustrate mobilization logistics, the speakers referenced historical case studies on government mobilization exercises, including “Nifty Nugget,” “Proud Spirit,” and “Proud Saber.” Based on their findings, the speakers recommended that military services reevaluate eligibility standards for draftees and recognize that a draft requires a whole-of-society effort to maintain national stability. Additionally, they cautioned against over-recruiting from essential trade industries, ensuring that critical infrastructure and services remain operational.
To read more about the speakers’ research on what it would take for the United States to conduct a draft, please read their report, entitled Back to the Drafting Board: U.S. Draft Mobilization Capability for Modern Operational Requirements.
Speaker Session Recording
Briefing Materials
Biographies:
Katherine L. Kuzminski (formerly Kidder) is the deputy director of studies and the director of the Military, Veterans, and Society (MVS) Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Her research specializations include Department of Defense institutional and organizational design and management; military recruitment, retention, and talent management policy; veteran and military family issues; and civil-military relations. Kuzminski returns to CNAS from the RAND Corporation, where she was a political scientist researching military personnel policy. During her time at RAND, she led research teams examining officer personnel management, reserve component transition issues, senior officer selection and development, military culture, and ground force capability development. From 2013 to 2017, Kuzminski served as a research associate, Bacevich fellow, and fellow for the CNAS MVS Program. In her previous time at CNAS, she led the CNAS Women in National Security research portfolio and the Rebuilding the Bipartisan Defense Consensus Project, and contributed to the development of the Veteran’s Data Project. Kuzminski has testified before the congressionally mandated National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service. Her research and analysis have been featured on NPR, BBC, Federal News Radio, NBC Nightly News, The Washington Post, and Politico. She is completing her PhD in security studies from Kansas State University, where she earned her BS in military history and an MA in security studies.
Taren Sylvester is the research assistant for the Military, Veterans & Society Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Their research interests include issues of civil-military relations, societal perceptions of the military, military ethics, and biodefense. Sylvester received their MA in international security and a graduate certificate in terrorism and homeland security from George Mason University. They also hold a BA in international studies from American University.
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