Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: Great Power Competition

March 2020 No Comments

Authors | Editors: Bragg, B. (NSI, Inc.); Canna, S. (NSI, Inc.); Popp, G. (NSI, Inc.) Report Preview At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The effort examined drivers of instability in the region emerging from radicalization, great power competition, state-level instability, […]

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Oman Succession Crisis 2020

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Author | Editor: Liebl, V. (Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning [CAOCL]); Yager, M. (NSI, Inc.) Invited Perspective Preview Note: This assessment was written before the death of Sultan Qaboos on 20 January 2020. While the death of Sultan Qaboos is inevitable, the succession will likely fall well within the purview of the Basic Law and […]

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SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion on Radicalization (Part II)

March 2020 No Comments

Speakers: Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University); Popp, G. (NSI, Inc.); Rieger, T. (NSI, Inc.); Suedfeld, P. (University of British Columbia) Date: 17 March 2020 Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. David Dorondo (Western Carolina University), Mr. George Popp (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia), and Mr. Thomas Rieger […]

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Summary of Previous Radicalization Work

March 2020 No Comments

Author | Editor: Jafri, A. (NSI, Inc.) Download Publication Please contact Sarah Canna (scanna@nsiteam.com) if you are interested in requesting access to this report.

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A Strategic Analysis of Violent Extremist Organizations in the United States Central Command Area of Responsibility

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Authors | Editors: Logan, M. (University of Nebraska, Omaha); Zimmerman, L. (University of Nebraska, Omaha); Ligon, G. (University of Nebraska, Omaha) Executive Summary In this study, our research team examines the organizational sophistication, leadership, and tactical patterns of five high-priority Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs) operating in the United States Central Command Area of Responsibility (USCENTCOM). The five VEOs include Hay’at Tahrir al- Sham (HTS), Islamic […]

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A “Colder War” Future in the USCENTCOM AOR? Realpolitik Trajectory of Major Powers and Regional Players

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Authors | Editors: Jiang, M. (Creighton University); Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University) Report Abstract and Methodology This paper addresses potential security concerns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the next 5-25 years if a strong Chinese-Russian alliance develops. It is also offers the U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) possible approaches to pre-empt both the […]

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SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion—Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the CENTCOM AOR: Vigilance Against the Unsuspected and Keeping Our Eyes on the Prize

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Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Peterson, N. (NSI, Inc.) Executive Summary Four panelists with deep knowledge and experience in the USCENTCOM AOR and with complex systems modeling were asked to reflect on how to think about and anticipate surprises in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR), especially Black Swan surprises that are the product of non-linear relationships between interacting variables. […]

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Hunting Gray Rhinos and Black Swans: Statistical and Machine Learning Models of Political Stability and Terrorism

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Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Day, J. (NSI, Inc.); Kuznar, E. (NSI, Inc.) Executive Summary Strategic surprise, the realization that one’s knowledge and assumptions are wrong and the adversary has an upper hand, is a national security nightmare (Amidon, 2005; Defense Science Board, 2015; Handel, 1984). Classic examples include Pearl Harbor, Sputnik, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the September 11, […]

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SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion on Radicalization (Part I)

March 2020 No Comments

Speakers: Cooley, S. (Oklahoma State University); Peterson, N. (NSI, Inc.); Wright, N. (Intelligent Biology); Polansky, S. (NSI, Inc.); Kaltenthaler, K. (University of Akron); Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Lee, H. (US Army TRADOC) Date: 10 March 2020 Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Ms. […]

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Thresholds in Cyberspace

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Speaker: Schneider, J. (Hoover Institution, Stanford University) Date: 11 March 2020 Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Jacquelyn Schneider (Hoover Institution, Stanford University) as a part of its SMA GeneralSpeaker Series. Dr. Schneider first stated that the creation and management of thresholds is critical to the success of US strategy. She then cited Connable et al.’s when defining […]

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