Systemic Strategic Thinking, Policy Analysis, and Planning

Speaker: Dr. Wayne Porter (Naval Postgraduate School)

Date: 15 March 2022

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Wayne Porter, CAPT, USN (Ret)(Senior Lecturer, Naval Postgraduate School) as part of its SMA Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) Speaker Series.

The world is comprised of a complex network of systems which take long-term, nonlinear, and non-conventional strategic thinking to understand. This type of strategic thinking is often recognized as necessary; however, it is rarely used by decision makers. Furthermore, the information used to make strategic decisions is often incomplete or misinterpreted at some level because of human error. Dr. Porter commented that when people are confronted with a complex situation, they frequently rely on simplistic heuristic evidence for its causality. This over-simplification of scenarios or events also leads to miscalculations relating to their understanding. Understanding scenarios clearly is possible through complex modeling systems and systems dynamics, which allows the analyst to create a predictive model, realign the structure of current systems, and create new goals and leaders’ decision-making calculus.

Dr. Porter then showed how his doctoral students at the Naval Postgraduate School have created complete and forward-thinking models of scenarios such as great power competition developing into a world war, countering a Covid-19 outbreak on military vessels through carrier onboard delivery capabilities, and what the future of medical fields will be in non-conventional and guerilla warfare. Social network analysis has even helped map Chinese illegal maritime activity around reefs in the South China Sea. Researchers should use social network analysis to construct an overarching system that could re-engineer the strategic and operational thinking of US leadership. Making this comprehensive system is particularly important during the current shift of defense focus to great power competition. 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Biography:

Dr. Wayne Porter, CAPT, USN (ret), is a Senior Lecturer in the Defense Analysis and Systems Engineering Departments of the Naval Postgraduate School, where he also serves as Co- Director of the CORE Lab and Director of the Littoral Operations Center. He holds a Ph.D in Information Sciences and two Masters of Science degrees – in Computer Science and Joint C4I Systems Technology – from the Naval Postgraduate School. Military duty included Japan, England, Italy, the Balkans, Bahrain (COMFIFTHFLT ACOS Intelligence and MOC Deputy of Operations in the Persian Gulf/East Africa), and three tours on the personal staff of ADM Mike Mullen, including Special Assistant for Strategy to both the Chief of Naval Operations (N00Z) and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. He subsequently served as Chair, Systemic Strategy and Complexity at Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California and retired from the Navy in July 2014 after 28 years of active service. Dr. Porter was hired as a faculty member at NPS in 2015 and in 2017 he provided systems analysis for the SECNAV’s Strategic Readiness Review. While working for the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff ADM Mullen, CAPT Porter coauthored, with Colonel Mark Mykleby, “A National Strategic Narrative.” Published by the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars a National Strategic Narrative was subsequently cited Pulitzer Award winning author Tom Friedman, CNN commentator Fareed Zakaria, former UK Secretary for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs David Miliband, former Foreign Minister of Israel Shlomo Ben Ami, and Secretary of Education Arne Duncan among many others (www.nationalstrategicnarrative.org). His articles have appeared in Connections (social network analysis journal), The Center for International Maritime Security website, The Homeland Security Affairs Journal, Grounded Theory Review, Harvard Business Review, Journal of American Foreign Policy Interests, The HotSpring Quarterly, the Washington Times, two OSD/JS White Papers, Naval Institute Proceedings, and the 8th Euromicro Workshop on Parallel and Distributed Processing. Dr Porter contributed the chapter, The Value of System Dynamics Modeling in Policy Analytics and Planning in the textbook, Policy Analytics, Modelling, and Informatics: Innovative Tools for Solving Complex Social Problems, Springer Publishing (2018). Wayne’s doctoral dissertation was an action research case study in which he used system dynamics to model the Steinbeck Innovation Cluster strategy he helped develop linking the technology and innovation of Silicon Valley with the agriculture and aquaculture industries of Monterey County, California and the Salinas Valley. Articles describing concepts of that strategy have appeared in the Financial Times and Forbes Magazine. Dr. Porter was recently named a Lifetime Achiever by Marquis’ Who’s Who in America. His civilian and military awards include the Ellis Island Medal of Honor, the Vice Admiral Rufus B. Taylor Award for Professional Excellence in Naval Intelligence, the Defense Superior Service Medal, four Legions of Merit, and the NATO Meritorious Service Medal. Dr Porter is a former “Walton Fellow” at Arizona State University’s Global Institute of Sustainability.

This speaker session supported SMA’s Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the AFOE project page.