Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Program

What is SMA?

Established in 2000, Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) provides “hard problem” planning and decision support to Combatant Commands, Services, and other US government departments and agencies. SMA enables decision makers to develop more cogent and effective strategy, doctrine, and force generation decisions, bridging the gap between the academic research community and operators and planners. SMA has supported projects ranging from campaign support, strategic deterrence, great power competition, influence operations, adversary decision making calculi, countering violent extremism, fragile state dynamics, and warfighter technology and capability gaps.

SMA Projects

The SMA Projects are multidisciplinary studies sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense that address complex defense and security challenges.

SMA Publications

The SMA Publications are an archive of research products produced through the U.S. Department of Defense Strategic Multilayer Assessment program.

SMA Speaker Series

The SMA Speaker Series features expert presentations and materials from the U.S. Department of Defense Strategic Multilayer Assessment program’s ongoing events.

Recent SMA Projects

February 2018-November 2018

Strategic Outcomes in the Korean Peninsula

At the request of the Joint Staff, SMA initiated an effort in April 2018 to develop a sound understanding of plausible near-term strategic outcomes of executing US political-military options to counter or defeat Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) threats to US national interests, ally and partner interests, and regional stability.

July 2017-July 2018

Contested Space Operations

At the request of the Joint Staff, SMA initiated a study in July 2017 to determine what are the options to assure that the capabilities the US military (and its partners) expect from US national security space will continue to provide a clear military advantage relative to the space-related capabilities available to potential adversaries.

March 2022-August 2023

Anticipating the Future OE (Ph I & II)

In February 2022, the Joint Staff J7 asked SMA to initiate an effort extending previous work by the Army Training and Doctrine Command’s (TRADOC) Global Cultural Knowledge Network (GCKN), “Exploitable Conditions Framework,” to 1) inform Combatant Commands’ and Services’ ability to compete successfully in the future strategic environment and 2) supplement ongoing investigations into strategic competition.

Recent SMA Publications

SMA Publication

NSI

Human, Machine, War: How the Mind-Tech Nexus Will Win Future Wars

Air University Press has published Strategic Multilayer Assessment’s (SMA) latest book, Human, Machine, War: How the Mind-Tech Nexus Will Win Future Wars.

Year Published:

2025

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SMA Publication

NSI

West Africa Exploitable Conditions Model

The West Africa Exploitable Conditions Model (WAECM) is an empirical, concept-based, system-of systems model tailored to the region of West Africa, as defined by USAFRICOM’s interactive AOR map (https://www.africom.mil/military-presence). Developed from the AFRICOM Exploitable Conditions Model (AECM), it identifies various variables or factors (nodes) and their linkages through direct connections to one another (edges), representing the complex conditions and dynamics of the OE in West Africa.

Year Published:

2025

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SMA Publication

NSI

Evolution of Deterrent Thinking in USSR and Russia: A Look through Military Reports

This comprehensive qualitative analysis examines the evolution of Russian articulations of deterrence by analyzing over 250 Russian military documents spanning from the Soviet era to the present. The research identifies seven periods that reflect paradigmatic shifts in the intellectual discourse of Russian military strategists regarding deterrence. These periods are not rigidly defined but serve as markers for transformations in military thinking. The analysis is supported by insights from relevant academic literature.

Year Published:

2025

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Recent SMA Speaker Series

SMA Speaker Series

Sino-Russian Military Cooperation in the North Pacific Arctic: Implications for US Security

Speaker: Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick (Center for Naval Analysis)

July 29, 2025

Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick

SMA Speaker Series

Party-Army Relations in Contemporary China

Chinese President Xi Jinping has launched the largest purge of leadership within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), primarily targeting the PLA Rocket Force and the Equipment Development Department, in an effort to bring the military more firmly under Chinese Communist Party (CCP) control. While the primary focus has been on the Rocket Force—which also oversees China’s nuclear arsenal —Xi has also begun removing leadership from the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). His attempts to strengthen CCP-PLA ties have led to widespread allegations of corruption and may be contributing to a slowdown in the PLA’s modernization efforts. This slowdown is significant, as Xi has ordered the PLA to be capable of invading and occupying Taiwan by 2027—a year symbolically marking the 100th anniversary of the PLA’s founding.

July 24, 2025

Lyle J. Morris

SMA Speaker Series

Using the New Character of Warfare to Dramatically Enhance Baltic Defense

Speakers: Dr. T. X. Hammes (Institute for National Strategic Studies)with Guest Host Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology)

July 16, 2025

‍Dr. T. X. Hammes

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