National Security Portfolio

NSI updated the Defense Analysis and Planning Support Environment (DAPSE) model, developed in 2007 for USSTRATCOM and USEUCOM, to guide planners and analysts through a systematic, subjective decision analysis-based analysis to identify deterrence levers by understanding an actors’ multi-dimensional decision calculus.

Feb 01, 2023–Jun 30, 2025

A Framework for Integrated Influence and Deterrence

21st C. Deterrence Frameworks

Based on the GECM, NSI created the AECM which looked at how the trajectory of global challenges, such as revolutionary technology advances, shifting distributions of state power, globalization, global disease evolution, etc. act as buffers and drivers of stabilizing and destabilizing activities including terrorism, violent conflict, economic growth and development, governance, corruption, humanitarian crises, and gender inequality.

Mar 01, 2022–Aug 31, 2023

Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE), AFRICOM Exploitable Conditions Model (AECM)

Anticipating the Future OE (Ph III)

At the behest of the Director of Joint Force Development, NSI developed a system-of-systems model named Global ExploitableConditions Model (GECM) that assessed the relationships among global challenges in which major power competition is likely to occur in the future operational environment.

Mar 01, 2022–Aug 31, 2023

Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE), Global Exploitable Conditions Model (GECM)

Anticipating the Future OE (Ph I & II)

In support of Valens Global on behalf of the Irregular Warfare Center, the NSI team applied its IOTA framework to outline a range of Chinese irregular warfare related activities and how those activities relate to strategic objectives and interests to gain insight into its implied strategy. The IOTA Framework is designed to illuminate the strategic impact of an actor’s activities—which can take place on different time scales, in different locations, and in different domains (diplomatic, information, military, economic)—yet align with the actor’s objectives in support of its key national interests. Understanding the relationships between a competitor’s activities (including those that are intentionally clouded), its theater and strategic objectives, and its high-level national interests provides analysts and decision makers with the context necessary to make sense of observed changes in activity.

Jan 01, 2023–Apr 30, 2023

China IW IOTA Analysis

At the request of USSTRATCOM, the The team employed its expert elicitation capability ViTTa to quickly harness the expertise of the strategic deterrence community to assess whether theories of deterrence developed during the Cold War are sufficient for today’s complex operational environment.

Jun 01, 2021–Mar 08, 2022

Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure

Using integrated state-of-the art information and communication theory combined with best practices from industry and governments (US/partners and adversaries), NSI conducted a net assessment of the strategic balances between the United States and its adversaries in their operations in the information environment (OIE). This net assessment event was part of an SMA effort to assess how the Joint Force can most effectively integrate information and influence into its activities across the competition-to-conflict continuum.

Nov 16, 2020–Feb 28, 2021

Measuring Information Effects: A Net Assessment

Integrating Info in Joint Operations

NSI applied its ViTTa methodology to better understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics in the central region. ViTTa is an expansive and established virtual network of trusted subject matter experts, unconventional thinkers, brightest minds, foreign voices, and varied perspectives to craft timely and cost effective analyses to critical and complex problems.

Aug 01, 2019–Mar 31, 2020

Assessing Regional Dynamics in the Central Region

NSI has applied its discourse analysis to efforts ranging from measuring leaders’ cognitive complexity that precede armed conflict, rhetoric in nuclear and missile testing and peace negotiations, behavioral intentions of leadership, and sentiment in social media commentary.

Jan 01, 2007–Dec 31, 2018

Discourse Analysis of Leader Speeches and Commentary

This quantitative discourse analysis of each of the DPRK’s leaders was conducted in historical frameworks in order to assess how Kim Jong-un is likely to negotiate relative to his father and grandfather.

Jun 01, 2018–Dec 31, 2018

What the Kims Tell Us About Kim Jong-Un's Worldview

IRC (Interest-Resolve-Capability) analysis finds that retaining regional influence in the context of Chinese economic might and ambition requires significant change in the US’ approach to the region.

Jun 01, 2018–Nov 30, 2018

IRC Analysis Tool Applied to Western Pacific Region

This NSI Pathways analysis examines the degree of overlap between reconciliation and reintegration markers, along with an assessment of the status of these markers in Afghanistan.

Jun 01, 2018–Sep 30, 2018

NSI Pathways – Reconciliation and Reintegration

NSI applied it's discourse analysis to discern how language used in discussion about the space domain reveals the interests of state actors. Corpora from three sources were examined using semi-automated discourse analysis to gauge the Chinese government’s concerns in the space domain and how these interests are articulated with general political and cultural issues. The primary findings from the discourse are presented as Chinese perspectives and worldview with respect to the space domain and general themes.

Jun 01, 2017–Apr 30, 2018

Chinese Worldview and Perspectives on Space: An Analysis of Public Discourse

Contested Space Operations

For the past several years NSI has provided US Special Operations Command Central Commander with a variety of research and analyses focused on the numerous conflicts, unrest, and the broader influences and regional dynamics of the central Middle East.

Apr 01, 2015–Mar 31, 2016

Middle East Unrest and Influences

NSI examined future political, security, societal and economic trends to help US European Command planners determine where US and NATO interests were congruent or in conflict with Russian interests as well as leverage points and their impact relative to Russian interests.

Nov 26, 2014–Feb 28, 2016

US | NATO and Russia Strategic Interests

Wirght-Patterson AFB had a need for a variety of language analyses and cultural assessments in support of operational units and their own research activities. NSI conducted a number of studies and developed tools for AFRL from 2009 to 2015. Those projects included: Analysis of Discourse Accent and Discursive Practices I&W; Analysis of Pashtun Narratives; The Expression of Trust in the Persian Language (Farsi); The Influence of Persian Worldview on Iranian Leaders’ Expressed Views of their Nuclear Program; Effect of Translation on Iranian Worldview Coding; and Cultural Assessment Module.

Jan 01, 2009–Dec 31, 2015

Discourse Analysis Research for the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL)

NSI hosted a structured workshop to examine the current state of research into violent extremism for the Department of Homeland Security. The event brought together leading experts, policymakers, and academics to discuss the latest findings, identify gaps in knowledge, and explore emerging trends in the field. Discussions focused on understanding the motivations behind radicalization, the role of online platforms in spreading extremist ideologies, and the effectiveness of various counter-extremism strategies. The workshop aimed to foster collaboration and inform future research priorities to better address the complex and evolving threat of violent extremism.

Jan 01, 2015–Dec 31, 2015

Mapping the Violent Extremism Research Landscape

NSI conducted an overview of the current literature on the intersection of social media and off-line political events for an Intelligence Community client and found that it is the nexuses between social media and the socio-political-economic context that plays a pivotal role in furthering political debate and facilitating the dissemination of information.

Jan 01, 2015–Dec 31, 2015

Social Media and Political Effects

NSI’s Holistic Engagement Activities Ranking Tool (HEART) is a multi-criteria decision-analytic evaluative tool to analyze and optimize resources to objectives and assess and compare complex tradeoffs and changing priorities.

Jul 01, 2014–May 01, 2015

Ranking of Holistic Engagement Activities in Africa

NSI participated in a collaborative review for the US Security Coordinator for Israel and the Palestinian Authority that evaluated strategic risks and identified knowledge gaps in future security environments and their implications to Palestinian security sector reform efforts.

Feb 01, 2014–Apr 30, 2015

Israeli-Palestinian Security Reform

Israeli-Palestinian Security

NSI has applied its StaM conceptual framework and analytic methodology to Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, West Bank, and Dhaka Bangladesh providing decision-makers with a rich contextual understanding of the social, economic and governing stability dynamics.

Sep 01, 2012–Mar 12, 2015

Stability Model (StaM) Assessments

NSI participated in a large effort focused on identifying areas of strategic risk and opportunity in the Asia-Pacific region over the next two decades. The intersection of US and Chinese interests could represent either a source of conflict or opportunity for cooperation. The main question that US policy makers and planners must consider carefully is: Where and which Chinese interests are most likely to conflict with US global interests, and where may there be opportunities for cooperation? The primary objective was to provide decision-makers the tools to make better sense of the non-linear dynamics and feedback mechanisms at play in the complex environment in which they, and their competitors, operate in the Asia-Pacific region, and broaden the horizon of strategic thinking and inform planning.

Dec 01, 2013–Feb 28, 2015

Drivers of Future Conflict in Asia-Pacific

NSI conducted research and analyses for US Pacific Command identifying drivers of conflict and convergence in the Asia-Pacific region spanning the next two decades examining socio-political and economic trends and where US and Chinese interests converge or conflict.

Dec 01, 2013–Feb 28, 2015

Drivers of Future Conflict in Asia-Pacific

NSI conducted a fragmentation pathways analysis of Pakistan for the Joint Staff to determine what path it was on by creating theoretical propositions about the nature of pathways, tested these against 12 historical cases, and applied the refined pathways to Pakistan.

Dec 01, 2012–Nov 30, 2013

South Asia Fragmentation and Muddling Pathways Assessment

NSI employed its ViTTa expert elicitation methodology to provide a rich contextual understanding of Iranian actions in the broader Middle East for US Central Command (USCENTCOM). Discussions with over twenty leading experts in geopolitics and Iran yielded four open source papers. The first ViTTa report describes Iran’s state-sponsored criminal enterprise, with a focus on popular sentiment in Iran related to these activities. The second report explores how Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence unit strategically influences Iran. The third report digs deeply into how Russia and China are attempting to influence Iranian decision-making. The fourth report considers how COVID-19 pandemic has impacted regime stability in Iran.

Oct 02, 2009–Dec 31, 2012

Understanding Iranian Actions and Influence in the Central Region

CALICO was an US Army Corps of Engineers analysis of a corpus of humanitarian relief organization documentation intended to reveal what the range of beneficiaries humanitarian relief organizations serve, what they do for them, and how such organizations operate administratively. NSI developed a coding taxonomy for capturing the organizations, beneficiaries, and relief actions discussed in the corpus. NSI used the taxonomy in automated text analysis to reveal associations between organizations and the activities they deliver to various beneficiaries, providing military operators deeper insights into what humanitarian relief organizations do, how they do it, who they serve, and how they can best work with them in humanitarian aid/disaster relief (HADR) operations.

Jan 01, 2011–Dec 31, 2011

Cultural Affairs Language for Informing Cultural Operations (CALICO)

On behalf of Charles River Analytics, NSI evaluated whether a set of selected situation reports (SITREPs) contained information related to the social, cultural, or political context of relevant operations, which could in turn be used to inform the selection of socially aware courses of actions (COAs). To achieve this goal, NSI conducted a manifest content analysis to examine and extract HSCB-relevant information. Social, cultural, and political information is often unrecognized and unused in intelligence reports since the primary focus of these reports is identifying and assisting in the eradication of threat by kinetic actions.

Jan 01, 2011–Dec 31, 2011

Tool to Represent, Analyze, and Collaborate on Knowledge for Human, Social, Culture and Behavior Modeling (TRACK-HSCB)

On behalf of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), NSI used the methodological expertise of its multi-disciplinary team to make critical contributions to the iterative design and implementation of a robust multi-method, multi-wave data collection effort applying the MPICE metrics framework. The MPICE framework incorporates a hierarchical system of outcome-based goals, indicators, and measures designed to provide insight into the achievement of stabilization objectives over time.

Jan 01, 2009–Dec 31, 2011

Measuring Progress in Conflict Environments: Measuring Afghanistan Progress (MPICE: MAP)

NSI conducted both organizational and social network analyses for a Navy counter-narcotics and trafficking program that automatically extracted entities, resolved variants, and related them to watch-log entries and the associated case or contact movement alert.

Jan 01, 2011–Dec 31, 2011

Countering Illicit Drug Trafficking

NSI has conducted studies on how to counter extremist organizations, evaluated nuclear smuggling and terrorism risks, and modeled patterns of ethnic conflict, repression, and social unrest.

May 01, 2008–Dec 31, 2011

Violent Extremism and Radicalization

NSI supported the DARPA-sponsored BAE Planning, Research, and Intelligence Scalable Modeling (PRISM) program in the following capacity: integration of the relevant social science research into the modeling and measurement; specification and development of computational models for inclusion in PRISM; design, development and population of the quantitative data repository and the data brokering capability to match model requirements to available data; and advisory support for the visualization framework.

Jul 28, 2010–Jun 30, 2011

Planning, Research and Intelligence Scalable Modeling (PRISM)

NSI provided the ERIS program—part of the Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) Modeling Program—with research, analysis, design, and development of a new simulation technology for projecting the dynamics of ethnic conflict and the impact of military plans, policies and actions on the evolution of ethnic conflict. NSI integrated system dynamic (SD) and agent based (AB) models, informed by social science theory at both the micro and macro level, to assess effects of ethnic conflict, repression & strife.

Jan 01, 2009–Mar 31, 2011

Ethnic Conflict, Repression, Insurgency and Social Strife (ERIS)

In the Socio-cultural Geo-Informatics Lab (SGIL) program, NSI built a state-of-the-art socio-cultural geo-informatics test bed to support assessment, test, and evaluation (T&E) as well as supporting the transition of Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (HSCB) technologies. In order to support the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s HSCB modeling initiative, NSI collaborated with government, industry, FFRDCs, and academic partners to perform validation and applied research, early testing and transition of prototypes, maturing and hardening of test bed; testing and evaluation (T&E) of HSCB models; and specification of metrics.

May 05, 2009–Nov 05, 2010

Socio-cultural Geo-Informatics Lab (SGIL)

NSI planned, managed, and executed numerous social science modeling and analyses efforts for two projects focused on providing the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Commander with a rich contextual understanding of the Pakistan and Afghanistan region.

Oct 02, 2009–Oct 28, 2010

Rich Contextual Understanding of Pakistan | Afghanistan

The Human Socio-Cultural Behavioral modeling program (HSCB) funded dozens of modeling projects intended to develop cutting edge computational models to enable the Department of War and the US government more broadly to understand and operate in other cultures. The Army Geospatial Center coordinated the technical progress evaluations (TPEs) and NSI was a key participant. The TPE team developed evaluation criteria that considered scientific criteria such as the theoretical, methodological, and empirical grounding of the models and how data were used to support the models. A key focus of the program was to model the complex systems in which DoW personnel operated and models were assessed in terms of their ability to capture dynamics such as measuring 2nd and 3rd order effects and emergent phenomena.

Jan 01, 2007–Dec 31, 2009

HSCB Technical Performance Evaluations

NSI has conducted research and analyses for US Strategic Command on concepts of nuclear strategy, how to use models/methods to better understand issues in deterrence, non-proliferation, and assurance, as well as development of decision analysis and planning tools.

May 03, 2007–Oct 14, 2009

State and Non-state Deterrence

NSI supported the Army Human Terrain System (HTS) program by serving as the Senior S&T advisor to the program manager, as development oversight of the socio-cultural toolkit, providing training support and as part of the assessment team. In addition, NSI provided data collection and analysis services in support of the Human Terrain System program evaluation process. Services provided include design of the DOTMLPF assessment framework; design of observation protocols, interview specifications, and survey instruments; on-site observation and data collection at client sites in Iraq and Afghanistan; qualitative and quantitative analysis of observation, interview, and survey results; and DOTMLPF recommendations for program enhancements.

Jan 01, 2007–Sep 30, 2009

Human Terrain System (HTS)

NSI contributed a hybrid leadership decision-making Goals-Means (GM) meta-model to the IARPA PAINT (Proactive Intelligence) program. The primary benefits of this model were fourfold: (i) allowing insight into the likely intentions, strategies and choices of foreign leaders; (ii)enabling comparison of sets of potential decision outcomes as explicitly linked to empirical data analyses; (iii) allowing perturbations, modifications and updating of original input data; and (iv) accommodating both data-rich analyses and those analyses where available data is sparse.

Jan 01, 2008–Dec 31, 2008

Goals-Means (GM) Meta-Model: Integrating Social Environments, Tech Pathways and Decisions to Act

NSI supported both the DARPA ICEWS as part of the Government team, and the related COMPOEX program with research, analysis, design, and development of a new simulation technology for projecting the decision dynamics of leadership groups and the impact of social influence and outside intervention on those decision dynamics.

Jan 01, 2007–Dec 31, 2008

Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS)

Counter-Terror Social Network Analysis and Intent Recognition (CT-SNAIR) was an MIT Lincoln Laboratory program that developed automated tools for terror threat network analysis and tracking, intent recognition, and capability prediction. NSI developed techniques for stochastic scenario generation of terrorist attacks, as well as modeling of terrorist social networks and their intentions at the transactional level.

Jan 01, 2007–Dec 31, 2008

Counter-Terror Social Network Analysis and Intent Recognition (CT-SNAIR)

NSI conducted a multi-model strategic analysis of the Sudan for US Central Command that addressed root causes of the humanitarian crisis, regional effects Sudan is having on the Horn of Africa, and conditions allowing Sudan to become a harbor for nefarious activity.

Jan 01, 2007–Dec 31, 2007

Strategic Assessment of the Sudan and Horn of Africa

NSI has been providing analytical and programmatic support to the US Defense Department Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) office for over a decade working the most complex and urgent national security issues affecting our military and intelligence agencies.

Jan 01, 2007–

Strategic Multilayer Assessment