What Deters and Why: Exploring Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression

December 2018 No Comments

“What Deters and Why: Exploring Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression”

Speaker: Mazarr, M. (RAND)

Date: 11 December 2018

Speaker Session Preview

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Michael Mazarr (RAND) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. Dr. Mazarr spoke about a recent RAND study, entitled “What Deters and Why: Assessing Requirements for Effective Deterrence.” The objective of the study was to rethink deterrence by reviewing existing literature, conducting case studies, and identifying factors that appear to be critical for successful deterrence. This study ultimately led to three products: a review of deterrence theory and the fundamentals of deterrence, a framework for assessing the health of a deterrence situation, and an assessment of deterrence in the Baltics. Dr. Mazarr then defined deterrence and identified 12 key variables governing the success of deterrence, which were grouped into three categories: “How motivated is the potential aggressor?;” “Is the defender clear and explicit regarding what it seeks to prevent and what actions it would take in response?;” and “Did the aggressor view the defender’s threats as credible and intimidating?” He emphasized the importance of a “firm-but-flexible stance that rules out opportunistic aggression while finding ways to address potential aggressor’s vital interests.” He then identified patterns among deterrent relationships, as well as some general conclusions and insights. Mr. Mazarr concluded by discussing the status of deterrence in the Baltics and a variety of actions that could enhance deterrence and dissuasion in this scenario.