The Concepts & Analysis of Nuclear Strategy (CANS) project undertaken for US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) was tasked to examine the utility of alternative analytic techniques for assessing nuclear force attributes and sufficiency under a variety of changed conditions. The CANS software developed during this effort is designed to enhance the planning process by guiding the analyst through the process of selecting appropriate alternate analytic techniques.

This project addresses two major interrelated objectives. The first objective is a substantive one: we are interested in better understanding why Afghan participation in ISAF and ISAF-sponsored initiatives is low, even when participation offers the opportunity for significant near-term benefits. We contend that the ISAF mission in Afghanistan presents a clear example of a shadow of the future decision problem for the Afghan people. Specifically, that low levels of Afghan participation result from the knowledge that ISAF presence is finite and that, after ISAF withdraws, insurgents will punish those who cooperated effectively negating the value of any benefits gained from that cooperation. This situation presents a serious policy challenge for ISAF, and a better understanding of the dynamics and factors that affect Afghans collaboration with ISAF’s local initiatives will help develop policies that can mitigate the current situation.

This report evaluates how crisis actors respond to adversary actions in the early stages of an international crisis. We specifically consider the first three stages of a crisis: the trigger act from a challenger, the response act from the defender state which has been triggered, and then the counter-response

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. Presenters included Lt Col Dave Lyle (Air Education and Training Command [AETC] and Air University), Dr. Michael Bunting (University of Maryland Center for Advanced Study of Language [UMD CASL]), Dr. Petra Bradley (UMD CASL), Dr. Jared Linck (UMD CASL), Dr. Kevin Gluck (Air Force Research Laboratory [AFRL] Cognitive Science, Models, and Agents Branch), Lt Col Paul Vicars (Pilot Training Next [PTN]), Maj Travis Sheets (PTN), and Dr. Andy Stricker (Air University).