This white paper is a follow-on report to a recent publication entitled “Over a Decade Later…What Now? What Next? A Multi-Layer Assessment of Terrorism in its Current and Future Manifestation.” 2 The previous paper was primarily an analytical product intended to provide insight into what current social science research and over a decade of practical experience suggest regarding the most effective counterterror strategies. It was based on comments made during multiple, semi-structured telephone interview sessions conducted between 06 May and 12 June 2013. The current white paper includes a series of articles by authors who participated in the previous white paper. These articles expand on the main themes raised in the previous report and cover topics ranging from strategic and adaptive considerations of terrorism to analytical considerations.

The recently released White Paper entitled “Assessing and Anticipating Threats to US Security Interests: A Bio-Psycho-Social Science Approach for Understanding the Emergence of and Mitigating Violence and Terrorism” that Giordano discusses in the succeeding section provided a scientific perspective on current operations. The current White Paper provides operational perspectives on that and other relevant sciences. Previous versions outlined WHAT scientific approaches might be relevant; this iteration focuses on HOW to operationalize it.

At the request of Joint Staff, the SMA program, in coordination with United States Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), participated in a second Counter-Da’esh Messaging Simulation that brought together nearly 100 Psychological Operation (PSYOP) operators, USG and international observers, interagency representatives, population experts from Iraq and North Africa, Da’esh experts, universities, and think tanks. This exercise served as both a test bed for messaging techniques and a training opportunity for PSYOP operators.

The paper leverages and melds the latest thinking of academic and operational subject matter experts in fields of organizational and social dynamics, network analysis, psychology, information operations and narrative development, social media analysis, and doctrine development related to aspects of maneuver and engagement in the narrative space.

This white paper represents the work of intra- and extramural subject matter experts (SMEs) from multiple disciplines, convened to provide views and insights to define and further develop a bio- psychosocial approach to understanding, assessing, and influencing the cognitions and behaviors of individuals and groups that are devising, recruiting, training, and implementing organized aggression and violence. In light of current national and international security concerns, a major focus of this report is upon those bio-psychosocial factors that are influential to, and influenced by the activities of the group known as Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant— ISIL (or Daesh/Da’ish).

This study sought to examine future political, security, societal and economic trends to identify where U.S. interests are in cooperation or conflict with Russian interests, and in particular, identify leverage points when dealing with Russia in a global context.

During FY 2014, the SOCCENT Commander requested a short-term effort to understand the psychological, ideological, narrative, emotional, cultural, and inspirational (“intangible”) nature of ISIL. As shown below, the SMA1 team really addressed two related questions: “What makes ISIL attractive?” or how has the idea or ideology of ISIL gained purchase with different demographics; and “What makes ISIL successful?” or which of the organization’s characteristics and which of the tactics it has employed account for its push across Syria and Iraq.

From July through November 2014, NSI conducted a Subject Matter Expert (SME) Elicitation study to gather insights from interviews, panel discussions, seminars, and personal communications with over 50 SMEs from the United States, the Middle East, and Europe. The interview questionnaire and transcripts from the SME elicitation effort are available upon request. CTTSO provided the Apptek Talk2Me platform to expedite the transcription of the SME Elicitation interviews. In addition, all of the data (human edited and original audio) are posted on the Web-based Talk2Me platform for the SMA study for further analytics and reporting.

This white volume focuses on possible ways that insights from the neurosciences may be incorporated into, and used within the United States Government’s (USG) approaches and ability to conduct optimized influence and deterrence operations for the purpose of maintaining global stability. In this context, neuroscientific techniques, technologies and information are viewed as viable means to build upon and enhance tactical approaches from other disciplines such as the social sciences. Understanding the neurobiology of human behavior can provide an added dimension to formulating deterrence and influence strategies in the context of a security environment that has become more complex and far more fluid over last few decades. In this white paper, the term “neurodeterrence” refers to the consideration and application of evolutionary neurobiological information about, and understanding of cognition and social behaviors that are important to deterrence theory in contexts of conflict.

This report marries contemporary social science theory, applied research, and operational experience to provide a range of perspectives on terrorism to challenge the reader to ask better, more relevant questions.

Radicalization is a complex phenomenon informed by various disciplines. The social sciences have provided planners and operators with an understanding of the ‘who’, ‘what’, and more recently the ‘how’ of radicalization. The neuroscience community is working to expand the understanding of ‘why.’ It is essential that planners and operators, who are often on the front line of counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency campaigns, have a deeper understanding of the why and how radicalization occurs. With a better understanding of the ‘why’ aspect of radicalization, planners, operators, and social scientists can move beyond purely correlative work. This report offers insights from these various fields in an easily accessible format for the operational and planning communities.

The Concepts & Analysis of Nuclear Strategy (CANS) project undertaken for US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) was tasked to examine the utility of alternative analytic techniques for assessing nuclear force attributes and sufficiency under a variety of changed conditions. The CANS software developed during this effort is designed to enhance the planning process by guiding the analyst through the process of selecting appropriate alternate analytic techniques.

In 2010 the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) office saw a need to bring academics, practitioners, and individuals from all branches of the United States government together to discuss the current research and debate issues surrounding extremist violence: Defining a Strategic Campaign for Working with Partners to Counter and Delegitimize Violent Extremism (CVE) and the Neurobiology of Political Violence. The findings from the two conferences clearly indicated that a detailed examination of a violent extremist organization from a multi- method approach was required in order to begin down the path of understanding.

If there were a simple solution for countering violent extremism, a solution would have been found centuries ago. Countering violent extremism successfully requires a balanced approach between security-related strategies and initiatives and those that address the underlying motivations and causes for participation in, and support of, a violent extremist organization (VEO). These strategies and initiatives need to be based on nuanced understanding of the various aspects of violent extremism—not only the environments that are likely to spawn violent extremism and sympathetic supporters, but also

The purpose of this compendium of white papers is to explore various perspectives on the state of the art in our understanding of collaboration, including insights on the key factors that influence the who, what, when, where, and how of this topic. Collaboration traditionally refers to multiple people or organizations working towards common goals, but there are many other perspectives and definitions. The objective of this compendium is to identify and discuss the issues:

Change is hard; it humbles us all. Yet, it is possible to succeed. This article explores the why, what, who and how of successful change initiatives. Despite wildly different organizational cultures in the U.S. Navy, Walt Disney, Major League Baseball teams, Police Departments, and in the technology and banking sectors, common practices employed by change champions yielded success. This article will demonstrate the importance of messaging change clearly, demonstrating how to live the change, aligning your people’s behaviors with new organizational values, using data to make change actionable and your organization accountable and cultivating strategic patience to sustain change initiatives over time. We hope this invited perspective provides confidence among the curious that, despite how difficult undertaking change is – and the many competing perspectives in the marketplace about how to do it well – this roadmap can set you up for success.

This study examined Egyptian, Russian, and Chinese media perspectives of the Egyptian economy to determine to what extent a future economic crisis in Egypt is probable, and identification of which great powers would most likely lead bailout efforts should an economic crisis unfold. To answer these questions, researchers employed a mixed-method approach analyzing over 500 news articles from the past five years from 18 different Egyptian, Chinese, and Russian native language news sites.

Research on radicalization is more robust theoretically than research on deradicalization. While there are several workable theoretical systems explaining radicalization, no theory of deradicalization exists (Koehler, 2017).

This report provides a comparative analysis of Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan media narratives regarding visions of the future of global competition, including their instruments of exerting power (DIME), purported vulnerabilities and necessary capabilities, projected allies and adversaries, views on the future of global order (FGO), the US, and EU, as well as the available means by which global competition should be managed.

The following study explored how extremist organizations may take advantage of the Kashmir crisis; it identifies prominent extremist organizations and stakeholder interests reported in Indian and Pakistani news media. Data was collected from 54 Indian and Pakistani news sources from May 16th to August 16th, 2019; a total of 437 articles were analyzed.

The UBC research group assessed psychological processes of six DPRK leaders, including Kim Jong-un, using thematic content analysis for integrative complexity and motive imagery, and Profiler Plus® computer-scored measures of Belief in Ability to Control Events (BACE), Distrust, and Self-Confidence. Despite some individual differences, in general the leaders were low in complexity, higher in power motivation than other motives, and high in BACE and distrust. This pattern indicates closed-mindedness, rigid thinking and planning, lack of perceptiveness in considering or trusting outsiders’ viewpoints and goals, a need for rapid and definite closure, and low probability of negotiating mutual concessions or flexibility in interaction. When under increased tension, the DPRK leaders’ profiles showed even higher distrust and need for power, somewhat increased affiliation need, and reduced motivation for achievement. These patterns indicate a low likelihood of significant changes of basic beliefs, motives, and strategies, despite possible overt assertions of such changes.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Kalev Hannes Leetaru (The GDELT Project) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.The GDELT Project provides researchers with many tools for analyzing public discourse through compiling large open-source databases and utilizing text-based analysis. This data is pulled from media sources across dozens of countries and in hundreds of languages. The GDELT Project is working to create the tools to accurately collect data from television news broadcasts and other forms of video, such as Tik Tok and Instagram. Current GDELT tools can identify images, objects, logos, and even some faces in video footage. However, these tools cannot identify the context in which these items are being shown or identify a subject’s emotions. This contextual information gives researchers a valuable insight into the sender’s intent.

EdgeTheory’s methodology and technology combines human analysis and artificial intelligence to help people understand the theories, conversations, and narratives that shape their world. Mr. Griffith emphasized that people have been having conversations since the beginning of time; it’s the mediums through which conversations happen that are what changes. Furthermore, he argued that conversation is either an actor’s biggest asset or a liability in achieving their objectives. For an actor to effectively use conversation, they must understand their chosen form of communication, understand who is being influenced, and potentially control the narratives around them.

Ms. Cook began by stating that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has always been an authoritarian regime. However, over the last decade, the CCP has further increased its control of Chinese media, the autonomy of private corporations, and the persecution of minority ethnic and social groups within China. To counter the negative impressions related to its authoritarian government, the CCP has launched a messaging campaign targeting countries around the world. Ms. Cook emphasized that China will target any media market, including small markets. Through these efforts, China tries to influence the narrative in these markets by using four tactics: a) propaganda, b) disinformation campaigns, c) censorship, and d) gaining influence over the information infrastructure in a country. Ms. Cook acknowledged that it is not just China who carries out these activities; some of China’s influence tactics are also used by other countries as part of their own geopolitical interactions with other states. However, she focused on China’s activities specifically for the purpose of this brief.

Dr. Cobb began her presentation by acknowledging that her own work builds on and heavily references prior communication, conflict, and psychological research, namely that of Dr. Lauren Kinney (author of Engaging with Uncertainty in Anticipatory intelligence) and Dr. Josh Kerbel (originator of the concept of anticipatory intelligence). She stated that her main finding from these scholars’ research was that an actor’s ability to have effective foresight relating to conflict management is partially reliant on their ability to be reflexive.

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. Zachary S. Davis (Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Lab) and Mr. Marshall Monroe (Marshall Monroe Magic, Founder, National Center for Soft Power Strategies), as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.Dr. Davis began by arguing that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is using soft power to try to develop a new narrative to replace the post-war, American-dominated narrative. He then discussed several trends in the CCP’s use of soft power to “cancel” American culture through movies and media. Dr. Davis explained that China looks at areas such as film as part of national power, unlike the US. He contended that China is pursuing an integrated strategy where soft power strategies are meant to accompany the rise of hard power in the country’s concept of its new global role. He stated that his research focuses on China’s accumulation of soft power as a carefully cultivated strategy that has been implemented and is being executed by officials and friends of the regime, with some of the most important friends being business leaders. In his view, the CCP is trying to reshape the narrative by replacing American values with CCP-friendly values.

Mr. Farwell’s brief focused on strategic views of information warfare and the impact that it is having. He began by stating that communication strategy and information warfare are about shaping and changing behavior, as well as managing expectations, using language, action, images, or symbols to achieve a desired effect or end-state. There is no formula for information warfare, however, Mr. Farwell emphasized. He also cautioned the US government (USG) to not let definitions become diversions, as the process of defining terms is often counterproductive. He added that information has always been a feature of warfare; modern technology has just altered how we use it. Information warfare is more common in the operating environment today, however, it will only continue to become more common. In some cases, Mr. Farwell argued, kinetic operations will require priority. In others, information will. He used Ukraine and the 2006 Lebanon War as case studies.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University) as a part of its SMA DHS CAOE Speaker Series. During his presentation, Dr. Cooley discussed his and his colleague, Dr. Robert Hinck’s (Monmouth College), research, which uses Northern Triangle media perspectives on migration as a reference point to contextualize larger system disruptions taking place within Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. He then stated that contextualizing decisions is imperative. In other words, making sense of outside perspectives and interdependencies is critical to taking sensible actions. Moreover, considering context can also help one address the problems presented by so-called “gray rhinos,” rather than continually neglecting them until they collide with their victims (in this case, US decision makers). Dr. Cooley explained that institutions and contextual structuring allows individuals to co-create meaning and identity. Furthermore, the stability of the structures around individuals allow them to create meaning and community with one another. However, individuals’ actions inform others of who they are only when they can make sense of them via a common reference point, and if social institutions disintegrate, so does one’s understanding of others. Dr. Cooley then discussed his and Dr. Hinck’s research on the violence that is eroding the social institutions of Northern Triangle nations and, more specifically, the mass scale migration that has resulted from this violence. He further explained that migration itself serves as a useful common reference point because it highlights relational interdependencies, commonalities, and contrasts across the region. To conduct their research, Dr. Cooley and Dr. Hinck used narrative analysis as a tool of contextualization and examined 199 articles from ten news sources coming from Northern Triangle nations. Dr. Cooley presented the team’s findings regarding violence, institutional failures, incentives for migration, the role of the US, and consequences and solutions. To conclude, he advised that US decision makers develop regional solutions; clarify US positions in relation to the region; consider a multi-pronged, multi-staged approach rather than an iron-fist approach; combat corruption; and offer economic lifelines.

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. Belinda Bragg (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), and Lt Gen (Ret) Dr. Bob Elder (George Mason University). Dr. Cooley first presented Oklahoma State University’s Media Ecology and Strategic Analysis (MESA) Group’s key takeaways from its comparative analysis of Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan media. These takeaways included: 1) the future of global competition is a battle for economic security, which is demonstrated through technological innovation, trade agreements, etc.; 2) US actions are leading to a leadership vacuum and growing uncertainty; and 3) informational and cultural strategies are being developed by China, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela in order to to mitigate US/Western influence. Dr. Cooley also presented the MESA Group’s findings specific to Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan media, respectively, as well as a series of potential challenges to US global influence and potential openings for the US to expand and maintain its influence. Next, Lt Gen (Ret) Elder discussed the George Mason University Team’s Timed Influence Net (TIN) model and its application to globally integrated operations planning. He first explained the TIN model’s framework and approach, followed by a discussion of Chinese, Russian, and US strategic goals. He explained that a challenge of globally integrated operations is coordinating global activities and messaging to promote US objectives and disrupt adversary objectives detrimental to the US and its global partners. Based on the TIN model’s results, Lt Gen Elder presented four key planning insights, including how identifying which US and competitor regional objectives are in conflict with one another can help highlight likely areas of competition that could develop into crises and can also be used to develop indicators and warnings for monitoring purposes. Lastly, Dr. Bragg discussed NSI’s global deep dive effort, which maps major power influence and activities. This global deep dive provides a systematic means of exploring China’s and Russia’s activities and interests at various levels of analysis– state, regional, and global. She explained that the deep dive also enables examination of how US, Chinese, and Russian interests and activities intersect to create the potential for cooperation, competition, or conflict. Dr. Bragg summarized the interests and activities data that NSI found for China and Russia, while also highlighting Chinese global activities, Chinese investment in infrastructure and resource extraction, and US and Russian leverage over countries of top importance to China.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Marshall Monroe (Marshall Monroe MAGIC / Magic Canyon Institute) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Monica Rankin (University of Texas at Dallas) and Dr. Vincent Ng (University of Texas at Dallas) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. The speakers for this panel discussion included Ms. Sarah Canna (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Dr. Robert Hinck (Monmouth College), Mr. James Krakar (USARMY TRADOC), and Dr. Sabrina Pagano (NSI, Inc.). Ms. Canna provided a brief description of Phase I of the most recent CENTCOM Reach Back effort, which focuses on South Asia and looks at a variety of future stability outcomes for Afghanistan. Mr. Krakar then discussed the TRADOC G-27 Modeling & Simulation Branch’s (i.e. Athena Simulation) contributions to the effort, highlighting the simulation’s four major findings. Next, Dr. Pagano spoke about NSI’s Pathways model, which evaluates which of several examined pathways Afghanistan is currently on, where it is headed, and what drivers, buffers, and barriers to stability are involved. Dr. Cooley and Dr. Hinck proceeded to discuss their main findings after examining Chinese and Russian news media coverage related to security and stability in Afghanistan. Ms. Canna concluded the session by briefly speaking about NSI’s initial Interest, Resolve, and Capability (IRC) analysis for Afghanistan.