Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE), AFRICOM Exploitable Conditions Model (AECM)

Anticipating the Future OE (Ph III)

Based on the GECM, NSI created the AECM which looked at how the trajectory of global challenges, such as revolutionary technology advances, shifting distributions of state power, globalization, global disease evolution, etc. act as buffers and drivers of stabilizing and destabilizing activities including terrorism, violent conflict, economic growth and development, governance, corruption, humanitarian crises, and gender inequality.

POC: For inquiries regarding this work, please contact Dr. Katy Lindquist (klindquist@nsiteam.com)

Project Team: Allison Astorino-Courtois, Ph.D.; BelindaBragg, Ph.D.; Sarah Canna; Gianna Courtois; Nathan Heath; Samuel Henkin, Ph.D.;Eric Kuznar; Lawrence Kuznar, Ph.D., Katy Lindquist, Ph.D.; Nicole Omundson; Sabrina Pagano Polansky, Ph.D.; George Popp; Danielle Rasmussen; JamesSundquist, Ph.D.; Mariah Yager

Description: The NSI team tailored the Global Exploitable Conditions Model to the US AfricaCommand’s (USAFRICOM) area of responsibility (AOR). Like the GECM, the AECM looked at how the trajectory of global challenges, such as revolutionary technology advances, shifting distributions of state power, globalization, global disease evolution, etc. act as buffers and drivers of stabilizing and destabilizing activities including terrorism, violent conflict, economic growth and development, governance, corruption, humanitarian crises, and gender inequality. Planners, analysts, and strategists can use AECM to assess the structural properties of a network and therefore how nodes are positioned to influence the system.

NSI responded to a number of requests for information over the course of the project dealing with a range of topics including food security, drought, floods, information and communications technology access, mineral activity, urbanization, agricultural production, government surveillance, informal economy, information environment, information and governance, population wellbeing, social ties and population resilience, peace operations, among others. These responses were delivered via a “Quick Look,” which is a short, highly visual, unclassified research report based on the AECM that reflects insights derived from the AECM.

Explore More Solutions

Our solutions help our clients understand people and their behaviors in order to make better and more reliable decisions.

See how in our National Security Portfolio or our Human Capital/Data Science Portfolio.

More National Security Projects

National Security

SMA

Drivers of Future Conflict in Asia-Pacific

NSI participated in a large effort focused on identifying areas of strategic risk and opportunity in the Asia-Pacific region over the next two decades. The intersection of US and Chinese interests could represent either a source of conflict or opportunity for cooperation. The main question that US policy makers and planners must consider carefully is: Where and which Chinese interests are most likely to conflict with US global interests, and where may there be opportunities for cooperation? The primary objective was to provide decision-makers the tools to make better sense of the non-linear dynamics and feedback mechanisms at play in the complex environment in which they, and their competitors, operate in the Asia-Pacific region, and broaden the horizon of strategic thinking and inform planning.

View Project

National Security

SMA

HSCB Technical Performance Evaluations

The Human Socio-Cultural Behavioral modeling program (HSCB) funded dozens of modeling projects intended to develop cutting edge computational models to enable the Department of Defense and the US government more broadly to understand and operate in other cultures. The Army Geospatial Center coordinated the technical progress evaluations (TPEs) and NSI was a key participant. The TPE team developed evaluation criteria that considered scientific criteria such as the theoretical, methodological, and empirical grounding of the models and how data were used to support the models. A key focus of the program was to model the complex systems in which DOD personnel operated and models were assessed in terms of their ability to capture dynamics such as measuring 2nd and 3rd order effects and emergent phenomena.

View Project

National Security

SMA

Tool to Represent, Analyze, and Collaborate on Knowledge for Human, Social, Culture and Behavior Modeling (TRACK-HSCB)

On behalf of Charles River Analytics, NSI evaluated whether a set of selected situation reports (SITREPs) contained information related to the social, cultural, or political context of relevant operations, which could in turn be used to inform the selection of socially aware courses of actions (COAs). To achieve this goal, NSI conducted a manifest content analysis to examine and extract HSCB-relevant information. Social, cultural, and political information is often unrecognized and unused in intelligence reports since the primary focus of these reports is identifying and assisting in the eradication of threat by kinetic actions.

View Project

Looking for Human Capital/Data Science Solutions?

View Human Capital/Data Science Portfolio

Site-wide Search

Search all site content, including all NSI and SMA publications, SMA Speaker series, NSI Team member bios, services, portfolio projects, company info, and more.