Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE), Global Exploitable Conditions Model (GECM)

Anticipating the Future OE (Ph I & II)

At the behest of the Director of Joint Force Development, NSI developed a system-of-systems model named Global ExploitableConditions Model (GECM) that assessed the relationships among global challenges in which major power competition is likely to occur in the future operational environment.

POC: For inquiries regarding this work, please contact Dr. Katy Lindquist (klindquist@nsiteam.com)

ProjectTeam: Allison Astorino-Courtois, Ph.D.; Belinda Bragg, Ph.D.; Sarah Canna;Gianna Courtois; Nathan Heath; Samuel Henkin, Ph.D.; Eric Kuznar; Lawrence Kuznar, Ph.D., Katy Lindquist, Ph.D.; Nicole Omundson; Sabrina Pagano Polansky, Ph.D.; George Popp; Mariah Yager

Description: At the behest of the Director of Joint Force Development, NSI developed a system-of-systems model of the future operational environment called the Global ExploitableConditions Model (GECM). This Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) effort assessed the relationships among global challenges in which major power competition is likely to occur (e.g., revolutionary technology advances, shifting distributions of state power, globalization, unstable supply chains, access to critical minerals, global disease evolution, etc.) in the future operational environment.

To understand these dynamics, the NSI team produced a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the multiple facets of, as well as both the direct and indirect relationships among, conditions in the competitive space—a foundation that is the indispensable basis for successful planning and operations in the strategic environment. The GECM reflects the interdependencies among the broad and diverse set of social, political, economic, environmental, technological, and human factors that characterize the current and future operational environment.

Ultimately, the GECM was designed to l) inform Combatant Commands' and Services’ ability to compete successfully in the future strategic environment and 2) supplement ongoing investigations into strategic competition. The GECM later served as thefoundation for the AFRICOM Exploitable Conditions Model (AECM)—a model of the operational environment tailored specifically to USAFRICOM’s area of responsibility (AOR).

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