Ethnic Conflict, Repression, Insurgency and Social Strife (ERIS)

NSI provided the ERIS program—part of the Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) Modeling Program—with research, analysis, design, and development of a new simulation technology for projecting the dynamics of ethnic conflict and the impact of military plans, policies and actions on the evolution of ethnic conflict. NSI integrated system dynamic (SD) and agent based (AB) models, informed by social science theory at both the micro and macro level, to assess effects of ethnic conflict, repression & strife.

POC: For inquiries regarding this work, please contact Dr. Robert Popp (rpopp@nsiteam.com).

Description: NSI provided the ERIS program—part of the Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) Modeling Program through the Combating Terrorism Technical Support Office (CTTSO) office—with research, analysis, design, and development of a new simulation technology for projecting the dynamics of ethnic conflict and the impact of military plans, policies and actions on the evolution of ethnic conflict.

Services provided included basic research of the dynamics to capture in the simulation; mathematical design of the simulation model; simulation programming and software development; scenario design and implementation; verification and validation of simulation results; military utility assessment; deployment of the simulation technology at client sites; and integration of the technology into the PSYOP Analytic Collaboration Environment (PACE) Program of Record.

NSI integrated system dynamic (SD) and agent based (AB) models, informed by social science theory at both the micro and macro level, to assess effects of ethnic conflict, repression & strife. The five major components of technical approach were (1) social science theories: employ applicable concepts from leading social science research, (2) hybrid multi-modeling: understand key factors and relationships across macro & micro levels, (3) social science ontology: represent common knowledge spanning concepts, data, models, (4) open architecture: implement and prototype models in Java within AnyLogic M&S platform, and (5) empirical data: utilize publicly available data for model development and validation. The major tasks and focus for Phase I and II were to formally represent micro/macro social strife; concurrent design of hybrid SD & AB models; ontology linking micro & macro level factors; prototype and simulate AB/SD models in software; and analyze, validate, generalize modeling results.

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