This project examined future political, security, societal, and economic trends to determine where US and NATO interests were congruent or in conflict with Russian interests and possible leverage points when dealing with Russia in a global context.

Identify Emerging Russian Threats and Opportunities in Eurasia

NSI examined future political, security, societal and economic trends utilizing techniques from our human behavior analytics to determine where US interests were congruent or in conflict with Russian interests and possible leverage points when dealing with Russia in a global context. Of particular interest were Russian perceptions of US activities in Eastern Europe and what impact those activities have on deterring Russian aggression in the region. We also considered where NATO interests were congruent or in conflict with Russian interests. NSI developed an interest-based integration framework to identify and evaluate interests from both the perspective of US/NATO and Russia, the relative salience and valence from each issues/actor perspective, and areas of risk and opportunity. Also, we identified areas of strategic risk and opportunity in the EUCOM AOR over the next 15 years, components of an effective US/Russia engagement strategy, and where and how EUCOM can best direct its resources to further US interests. NSI also interviewed nearly 30 SMEs utilizing our ViTTa services to solicit international perspectives, integrate empirical and academic research, challenge assumptions, and develop a rich, baseline understanding of cooperation and conflict in Eurasia.