On 27 February 2019, the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA, Joint Staff, J39) office—with the support of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and National Defense University (NDU) – convened a panel discussion on China in support of the SMA Future of Global Competition and Conflict effort. The scope of the day’s event was to assess how the United States Government (USG) should consider China’s power in relation to other states for the purpose of understanding the implications for future geopolitical competition.

On 8 May 2019, the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA, Joint Staff, J39) office, with the support of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and National Defense University (NDU), convened a panel discussion on Russia in support of the SMA Future of Global Competition and Conflict effort. The scope of the day’s event was Russian activities in the Gray Zone, its perception of global competition and conflict worldwide, and its long-term growth trends, economic activities, and diplomatic affairs. The event convened speakers from government, think tanks, and the academic community; each speaker offered prepared remarks, and then assembled to debrief and take questions.

Ecological security will likely be one of the defining security issues of the 21st century. Mr. Lewis emphasized that the world is in a race between the harmful effects of global climate change and the delayed but necessary efforts in mitigation, adaptation, and regeneration.

The negative effects of climate change on societies and their security are well-documented; however, the speed and scale at which climate change mitigation must occur to avoid the worst effects may bring destabilizing consequences as well.

Climate change is now widely recognized as a significant national security threat multiplier that exacerbates existing state and regional vulnerabilities, increasing the likelihood of conflict. Environmental stress intensifies human, economic, and political instability, particularly in countries in Africa and East Asia.

Climate change is projected to have deep and far-reaching effects as its pace continues to increase, amplifying states’ insecurities and vulnerabilities.

Since 2008, the discourse on the relationship between climate change effects, conflict, and security has significantly evolved.

Climate change is forcing Africans from their communities as local resources and economic opportunities dry up. The African continent produces only 3% of global Co2 emissions; however, it suffers the most from the resulting climate change effects. Climate change effects on the African continent are forcing short-term intra-regional and inter-regional climate migration across Africa. The misleading perception of climate-migrants fleeing Africa is causing countries in Europe and other regions to create reactionary and protectionary immigration policies, stated Dr. Mbiyozo. This intra-continental migration will continue to increase as global warming and climate change affects intensify and resources become more scarce. There could be more than 85 million internal climate-related migrants if the average global temperature increases by 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Not all Africans being affected by climate change are able to move to communities with better access to the necessary resources. Many Africans—especially women—are caught in the poverty trap, making them immobile.

Increasing climate change caused by global warming is leading to more frequent floods, droughts, and loss of coastline among other environmental disasters. These environmental disasters are erratic and affect everyone.