Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) of Strategic Outcomes in the Korean Peninsula- Part 1: Key Findings

Authors: Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI, Inc.)

Top-Level Findings

This paper reports a number of the top-level findings from the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Strategic Outcomes in the Korean Peninsula project requested by the Joint Staff and USINDOPACOM. They are based on an integration of the results of the eleven different analytic efforts included in the project.

Finding: There are impediments to North Korean denuclearization on multiple layers making it highly unlikely and extremely difficult to achieve under foreseeable conditions.

Finding: Increased US-PRC tensions (the “new Cold War”) may work to Chinese advantage if regional actors are forced to choose between US guns and Chinese butter; US seen as disruptive or unengaged.

Bottom Line: The US role and approach to satisfying its objectives in the Pacific may be at a crossroads. Long-term US influence in the Pacific may require a change in the way the US perceives “regional leadership” and the activities that go with it.

This publication was released as part of SMA’s Strategic Outcomes in the Korean Peninsula project. For more information regarding this project, please click here.