There are a number of legitimate reasons that account for China’s decision to break with decades of tradition when it established its first foreign military base in Djibouti in 2009, according to Dr. John Garver, Professor Emeritus at the China Research Center at Georgia Institute of Technology. First, China has a strong economic interest in protecting vital shipping lanes that pass through the nearby Gulf of Aden (Garver, Haddad-Fonda, Payne). Notably, China expanded its maritime security role in the northwest Indian Ocean during the 2008-9 financial crisis in North America and Europe—a time when China’s economic growth seemed “unstoppable” (Garver).

This is Part 3 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.

This report explores the potential pathways associated with two hypothetical futures for the nation of Pakistan–Fragmentation and Muddling through. We started with theoretical propositions about the nature of, and points along, the pathways, tested these against historical cases, refined our characterizations of the paths, and then applied these to look at Pakistan from today forward.

This report addresses a number of key questions regarding the factors that underpin stability and instability in Pakistan. In particular: Which are the factors that most significantly contribute to governing, economic, and social stability in Pakistan? Are there factors commonly associated with stability that have no effect or have divergent effects on stability in Pakistan? What are the primary effect dependencies among factors? Is the effect of specific factors likely to change with time?

The Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) office provides planning support to the Combatant Commands with complex operational imperatives requiring multi-agency, multi- disciplinary solutions that are not within core Service/Agency competency. Solutions and participants are sought across the United States Government (USG) and beyond. SMA is accepted and synchronized by Joint Staff and executed by ASD (R&E)/RFD/RRTO.

It would be comforting to be able to find some constants, some footholds in our understanding of terrorism. It is, in fact, the element of mystery as to what drives people to collective violence that makes us uncomfortable -- that fills us with terror. Researchers, policy makers, those who must combat terrorism, and the public hope for some simple formula for radicalization, a program or set of programs that will prevent groups of people from deliberately targeting other people in order to meet their needs (political, economic, social, etc). There is no magic formula within this paper collection, but there are a variety of perspectives that, either in isolation or when integrated, provide new ways to think about terrorism and potentially to inform decisions that will abate this global phenomenon, not exacerbate it.

The Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) program provides planning support to COCOMs and warfighters. The program coordinates with the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, and STRATCOM to support global mission analysis and to develop new analytic capabilities in support of specific tasking. These analytic capabilities seek to orient the commander to a decision for action. SMA develops multi-disciplined, multi-organizational teams for specific projects. It emphasizes the integration of human, social, cultural, behavioral, and physical sciences factors through participation of sociologists, anthropologists, economists, and physicist/engineers as well as universities, non-governmental organizations, and various interagency partners. SMA efforts produce focused, multi-disciplined strategic and technical assessments as well as documentation, training and education in the application of newly developed analytic tools.</p>,

The objective of Helmand Deep Dive Development and Governance Workshop was to examine academic works and newly generated data and models and to develop guidelines and recommendations for low-cost development project implementation. The Helmand Deep Dive effort focused on water, governance, reconstruction, and job creation.

The experts who contributed to this Quick Look agree on an essential point: Pakistan’s beliefs regarding the threat posed by India are so well-entrenched that they not only serve as the foundation for Pakistan’s foreign policy and security behavior, but represent a substantial barrier to changing it behavior. Christine Fair a Pakistan scholar from Georgetown University is specific as to the target of any influence efforts – difficult as they may be: “the object of influence is not ‘Pakistan;’ rather the Pakistan army’ and so security behavior change if possible requires change in the Army’s cost-benefit calculus. The essential components of Pakistan’s security beliefs are first that India is an existential threat to the state; and second that Pakistan is at a tremendous military and economic disadvantage to its stronger neighbor.

[B4] How do you reintegrate radicalized people back into society? Both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have centers focussed on this problem. What should the international community do with people who cannot be reintegrated into society? Are there lessons from other regions on reintegration and reconciliation that could be applied to the central region?

Six datasets on wealth and status distribution in Pakistan were analyzed: 2015 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, International Labor Organization (ILO) income by occupation data from years 2018 and 2014, USAID Demographic Health Survey (DHS) wealth factor scores and agricultural land ownership from 2012-13, and wealth factor scores from 2006-07.

The following study explored how extremist organizations may take advantage of the Kashmir crisis; it identifies prominent extremist organizations and stakeholder interests reported in Indian and Pakistani news media. Data was collected from 54 Indian and Pakistani news sources from May 16th to August 16th, 2019; a total of 437 articles were analyzed.

In this study, we examine five active Violent Non-State Actors (VNSAs) and their capacity for violence in a potential conflict in the Kashmir region. The four VNSA include Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Hizbul Mujahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammad, and Al Qaeda. Drawing from both the Leadership for the Extreme and Dangerous for Innovative Results project, we focus on each VNSA’s organizational and leadership capabilities. Our findings suggest that two VNSA, LeT and Al Qaeda, have high levels of destructive capacity based on their organizational features. The other two VNSA, HM, and JeM, have moderate levels of destructive capacity. In our conclusions, we also speculate as to the potential role of the Islamic State in the Kashmir region.

This study was conducted to address the question: How can the US increase the resolve and capability of Pakistan to support political reconciliation in Afghanistan and the region?

In August of 2018, United States Central Command asked the Strategic Multilayer Assessment Reachback team, How can the United States best increase the resolve and capability of regional actors to get to political reconciliation in Afghanistan? This report highlights the results of NSI’s Interest-Resolve-Capability (I-R-C)™ analysis of Afghanistan stakeholder dynamics.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron and Case Western Reserve University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Dr. Kaltenthaler first provided a brief summary of the present state of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations.

The Indo-Pacific region is home to approximately 60% of the world’s population and contributes 60% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP), making it one of the most significant regions to monitor.

China’s economic slowdown coupled with its ambition to continuously compete with the US both economically and politically is compelling Beijing to intensify its efforts to increase political influence in the Global South. Mr. Schuman, who authored an article on why China will struggle to win over the Global South and how India can aid the US in countering China’s efforts, suggested that China’s ultimate geopolitical goal is to reshape the current political world order.

India’s expanding political influence is altering the current geopolitical order in Asia, with India positioned at its center. India’s growing role in geopolitics will over time take away some of the geopolitical focus on the Asia-Pacific region and place it on the Indo-Pacific region. Mr. Soliman emphasized that India’s geographical position at the center of the economic corridor running between China and the Middle East, give it a political and economic advantage. India’s massive population gives it massive economic and industrial potential on its own. India is also in a unique position to build political ties throughout the Indo-Pacific region with its historic and cultural ties throughout the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. To further its geopolitical influence in the Indo-Pacific, India is not only relying on its economic potential, but also signing military and security deals with other nations in the region. India is increasing its dialogue with several significant actors in the Middle East: Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Finally, Mr. Soliman put forth that Shinzo Abe’s Indo-Pacific vision, an India-centric strategy with a focus on bilateral security dialogue with Australia and the US, is now coming true.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Jessica Liao (North Carolina State University) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Raffaello Pantucci (Royal United Services Institute [RUSI]) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Linda Robinson (RAND) and Ms. Laurel Miller (RAND) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Ms. Miller spoke about how the United States can gain greater cooperation from Pakistan, which, she argues, is critical for achieving US objectives in Afghanistan. She discussed why Pakistan has resisted pressure to stop hedging against the US strategy in Afghanistan, and she outlined the options and constraints that would be involved if the US exercised leverage. Ms. Miller also explained how Pakistan might be convinced that collaboration with the United States would be preferable to hedging. Ms. Robinson concluded the session by offering potential “carrots and sticks” that could be used to entice cooperation from Pakistan.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by BG (Ret.) Feroz Khan (NPS), AMB Hamdullah Mohib (Afghan Ambassador to the United States), Dr. Afshon Ostovar (NPS), Dr. Christopher Twomey (NPS), and moderator, Dr. Hy Rothstein (NPS) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. AMB Mohib first provided his insights on the Afghan peace process and emphasized that US decision makers must keep in mind that the Afghanistan we are dealing with today is not the Afghanistan we dealt with in 2001 or even in 2013. BG (Ret.) Khan then offered a Pakistani perspective and clarified some of the myths and truths about Pakistan’s involvement in and views towards Afghanistan. Dr. Ostovar proceeded to discuss Iran’s interests and key issues in the region. Dr. Twomey then spoke about how China is less interested in Afghanistan than it is in Pakistan, due largely to its security rivalry with India. To conclude the discussion, the panelists commented on noteworthy points brought up during each other’s presentations.