Potential Paths to Instability in Jordan

Authors: Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI, Inc.), & Tom Rieger (NSI, Inc.)

This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.”  For more information regarding this project, please click here.

Bottom Line

What would be the strongest catalyst leading to a civil war/revolt in Jordan?

It is highly unlikely that a single catalyst could lead to a civil war or revolt in Jordan. Significant regime crisis in Jordan would more likely require a ‘perfect storm’ of severe popular grievance aimed at the government (including the monarchy), multiple catalysts, and the failure of the regime’s considerable sources of resilience (i.e., buffers).

Will His Majesty King Abdullah (HMKA) and his tribal affiliates be able to contain the level of violence?

Yes. In all likelihood, HMKA and his tribal affiliates would be able to quell a civil uprising, unless significant numbers of the tribal affiliates themselves took part in the violent opposition.

Who/what would succeed HMKA?

The answer to this question depends wholly on whether the pathway to regime change involved primarily institutional change or violence. Thus, those who assume control could range from members of Parliament and government ministers (more likely) to violent extremists ruling over a fractured state (less likely).

How would a civil war/revolt impact the broader region?

Violent non-state actors are likely to be the only “winners,” as a violent uprising in Jordan would present opportunities for resurgence in ungoverned spaces. This in itself would present significant security threats to Israel, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and other actors currently battling these groups. The most stricken would be the Jordanian people and well over one million refugees in Jordan who would quickly become the victims of a massive humanitarian crisis.

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This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.”  For more information regarding this project, please click here.