Russian Cyber Strategies and Information Operations: From Cuba to Crimea and Beyond

October 2020 No Comments

Speaker: Drozdova, K. (Seattle Pacific University)

Date: 21 October 2020

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series, featuring Dr. Katya Drozdova (Seattle Pacific University).

Dr. Drozdova began her presentation by emphasizing the need to understand the complexity of Russia, particularly when assessing its cyber and information operations. Characteristically, these operations serve Russia’s broader interests and are often integrated with other means to broaden national power, military strength, and covert operations. Dr. Drozdova used the Cuban Missile Crisis as an example of a Russian information operation, as the Soviets used strategic communication with the US in an attempt to force the US to remove its nuclear weapons from Turkey. Another notable example is Crimea, where Russia is currently deploying significant elements of a cyber campaign that are tightly interweaved with special operations, election politics, etc.

Dr. Drozdova noted that as cyber capabilities grow, it is critical to think about what is new and what is not. In Russia’s case, it has learned from its own history—drawing lessons from the Cold War, especially the collapse of the Soviet Union, and applying those lessons to scenarios in Crimea and Syria. When assessing an adversary, it is critical that the US understands how that adversary thinks, Dr. Drozdova explained, and in Russia’s case, it thinks with a historical perspective. Furthermore, with the Russian brain drain leading some of its best cyber analysts and hackers to leave the country to find work, Russia is now capable of plausible deniability if it uses those individuals for its own operations. From a Russian perspective, this is a double-edged sword, however, as other actors and states could also access these cyber experts for counteroperations, Dr. Drozdova stated.

Dr. Drozdova then explained that cyber operations and information campaigns in Russia are pieces of a larger effort to pursue its strategic interests. Russia has always wanted to be recognized as a major player in international relations, which is a driving force behind its strategies. Furthermore, Russia’s cyber strategies are designed with a broader geopolitical scope. There is also a combination of different means of national power and risk-taking in certain campaigns, such as those in Cuba and Crimea, because they engage NATO and the West. This willingness to take huge risks is something to watch for, Dr. Drozdova warned, as it demonstrates the need for caution when interacting with Russia. Russia’s goal is not only to expand its power, but also to build its credibility and reputation across the world. Russia has successfully rebuilt and restored many capabilities since the fall of the Soviet Union, and what makes Russia more threatening today is the fact that there is much more secrecy surrounding and less knowledge about Russia than there was about the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Moreover, uncertainties are far greater in the information and cyber age, which adds to the risk Russia poses from a US and more general Western perspective. Dr. Drozdova concluded her presentation by encouraging the development of analytical tools to better assess cyber threats and information campaigns.