Spheres of Influence in the Coming Decades: Four Alternative Scenarios

Speakers: Dr. Mathew Burrows (Stimson Center), Collin Meisel (Stimson Center), Caleb Petry (Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures), and Dr. Jonathan Moyer (Josef Korbel School of International Studies; Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures)

Date: 11 July 2023

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Mathew Burrows (Stimson Center), Mr. Collin Meisel (Stimson Center), Mr. Caleb Petry (Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures), and Dr. Jonathan Moyer (Josef Korbel School of International Studies; Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.

There has been much speculation regarding how the future great power competition between the US and China will affect the level of their global influence. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which was designed to restore Russia’s geopolitical power, inspired the research group from the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures to try and predict future pathways for global political influence. The group has created the FBIC Index with the International Futures (IFs), identifying four main pathways for the evolution of actors’ political influence. These pathways are a) Great Power Competition, b) The Doldrums (a global recession), c) Western Resurgence, and d) Pariah State (Russia’s near complete isolation from the global system). The presenters emphasized that while the pathways identified by the IFs are the most likely, the future is highly unpredictable and deviations to any of the forementioned pathways are probable.

The Great Power Competition pathway is a continuation of current geopolitical trends, including a protracted war in Ukraine and China’s slow rise to geopolitical parity with the US. The main features of The Doldrums pathway are a protracted war in Ukraine, a global economic recession, and China and the US making minimal political gains. The Western Resurgence pathway is the optimal scenario for the US and its allies. In this scenario, Ukraine continues to gain territory in eastern Ukraine and Western countries increase their geopolitical influence in many developing countries, even in East Asia. The Pariah State pathway is contingent on Russia violating its own first-use policy regarding nuclear weapons. This scenario would likely result in Russia becoming extremely economically reliant on China. During this scenario, developed countries will likely become much more nationalistic, protective, and decrease their economic ties at large. The researchers also demonstrated how countries’ economic ties can be represented as a network, and how the different pathways affect the global economic network. 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing materials

Briefing Slides:

Report: Spheres of Influence in the Coming Decades: Four Alternative Scenarios

Biographies:

Collin Meisel is a Nonresident Fellow with the Strategic Foresight Hub at the Stimson Center. He is also the Associate Director of Geopolitical Analysis at the University of Denver’s Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and a subject matter expert at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. Through data gathering, index construction, and quantitative analysis, Meisel’s research focuses on international interactions and the measurement of the depth and breadth of political, diplomatic, economic, and security ties between countries as they have and are projected to evolve across long time horizons. In recent years, he has completed funded research for the U.S. National Intelligence Council, U.S. Army Future Studies Group, U.S. Agency for International Development’s Ukraine mission, and other partners. His research has been published in the Journal of Contemporary China, Journal of Peace Research, and Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression, and his commentary has been published by Defense One, The Hill, the Modern War Institute at West Point, and War on the Rocks, among other outlets. 

Caleb Petry is a Model Development Research Associate at the Pardee Center for International Futures. He primarily works to build extensions to, improve, and apply the International Futures model – with a primary focus on bilateral interactions. Additionally, he conducts research for the Diplometrics Program and other projects as needed. Since initially joining Pardee as a Research Assistant in 2015, he has also contributed to research at Pardee on such issue areas as severe acute malnutrition (SAM), military reach, and threat – among others. His personal research interests include better understanding the role of relevancy in international conflict and the linkages between economic development and conflict. 

Dr. Jonathan D. Moyer is Assistant Professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. He works across various research areas, extending and using the International Futures (IFs) integrated assessment platform. Jonathan studies patterns of human development through funded research for organizations like the African Union Development Agency and the United Nations. He leads the creation of new data and tools to better understand and analyze international relations contributing to reports such as the U.S. National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2030. Jonathan also researches patterns and drivers of state fragility and failure, most notably as Lead Co-PI on a five-year Minerva grant. 

Dr. Mathew Burrows is the Program Lead of the Stimson Center’s Strategic Foresight Hub and a Distinguished Fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program. Prior to joining Stimson, he served as the director of Foresight at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Strategy Initiative and as the co-director of the New American Engagement Initiative. Burrows is one of the leading experts on strategic foresight and global trend analysis. In 2013 he retired from a 28-year-long career in the State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the last 10 years of which he spent at the National Intelligence Council (NIC), the premier analytic unit in the US Intelligence Community. In 2007, Burrows was appointed Counselor, the number three position in the NIC, and was the principal drafter for the NIC publication Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, which received widespread recognition and praise in the international media. In 2005, he was asked to set up and direct the NIC’s new Long Range Analysis Unit, which is now known as the Strategic Futures Group. Other positions included assignments as deputy national security advisor to Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill (2001-02), special assistant to the UN Ambassador Richard Holbrooke (1999-2001), and first holder of the intelligence community fellowship at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York (1998-1999). 

This speaker session supported SMA’s Strategic Deterrence Frameworks (SDF) project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the SDF project page.